Hampshire Women vs The Blaze Women: match prediction on 19 September 2026

Hampshire Women to edge The Blaze Women

Hampshire Women are tipped to beat The Blaze Women in this Women's One-Day Cup clash on 19 September 2026. The model expects 187.5 runs from the hosts compared with 177.8 from the visitors, and that gap—ten runs—aligns with how closely these sides have been playing each other. The Blaze lead the table by five points, but they have also played one match more, and the momentum has swung toward Hampshire since their last meeting.

The hosts arrive with four wins from their last five one-day matches, losing only to Lancashire 223:224 on 26 August. Their most recent outing was a dominant 303:109 victory over Surrey at home on 16 September. The Blaze Women mirror that record—four wins, one defeat—but their loss came away at Hampshire on 9 September, 249:250, a result that still sits fresh in memory. Both sides have taken 12 points from five games, but the context matters: Hampshire's win over Surrey was emphatic, while the Blaze's narrow defeat to Hampshire was a one-run thriller.

Their head-to-head record over the past two years tells a story of tight contests. The Blaze have won four of seven meetings, Hampshire three. The most recent fixture on 9 September ended 250:249 to Hampshire, and before that the Blaze won by two runs at home on 15 May 2026. In the Vitality Blast on 8 July 2026, Hampshire won 151:128. The pattern is clear: margins are small, and home advantage has occasionally tipped the balance.

League standings place The Blaze Women top with 61 points from 16 matches—13 wins, 3 losses—while Hampshire sit second with 56 points from 15 matches, 12 wins and 3 defeats. The five-point gap looks substantial until you note the extra match played. Both sides have lost three games each, and the Blaze's additional fixture was a win, so the table does not tell the whole story. This is a match where momentum and venue can outweigh points difference.

The model projects 187.5 runs for Hampshire and 177.8 for The Blaze, a difference of nearly ten runs. It assigns 0% probability to a draw and 0% to both teams failing to reach their expected totals—figures that suggest a decisive result is likely. The most probable scorelines cluster around the hosts scoring one or two runs more than expected, the visitors falling slightly short. That aligns with Hampshire's home record in recent meetings and their emphatic finish against Surrey.

This conclusion stops holding if The Blaze Women replicate their away form from 26 August, when they beat Warwickshire 282:212 by 70 runs. A big total from the visitors, combined with Hampshire failing to chase, would flip the model's expectation. A draw suits neither side under this model, but if conditions turn wet and the match is shortened, the mathematics change entirely.