Japan vs Afghanistan: match preview on 24 September 2026

Afghanistan win

65%

Both sides sit 2–3, but the quality of opposition tells a different story. Afghanistan's last five games include three heavy defeats to India alongside two narrow victories over Ireland, while Japan's run against regional opponents shows similar volatility. The Afghan side has been playing at a higher scoring intensity, averaging nearly 210 runs per match in their last five, compared to Japan's 167. Afghanistan's matches have been high-scoring affairs, with wins over Ireland producing totals of 302 and 343, while losses to India ranged from 156 to 221. Japan's recent games have been tighter contests; even their biggest win over Papua New Guinea produced only 121 runs, and their narrowest defeat to Cook Islands was decided by four runs. The Afghan side has shown capacity for big scores, which could prove decisive in a tournament setting where run rates are critical. India has dominated Afghanistan across three encounters, winning all by comfortable margins, suggesting Afghanistan is still finding its level against top-tier Asian cricket. Japan has faced a mixed bag of opposition — beating PNG and Samoa but losing to Hong Kong and Cook Islands. Neither side has proven itself consistently against stronger competition, but Afghanistan's experience against India gives them more exposure to higher-level cricket than Japan has accumulated recently. Given Afghanistan's higher scoring output and experience against stronger opposition, the model favours them despite their identical 2–3 records. The probability sits at 65% for an Afghan victory, reflecting their scoring advantage and the fact that Japan has not yet beaten a team of Afghanistan's calibre. Japan’s main threat is slowing the run rate. If Afghanistan's top order fails to fire early, or if Japan's bowlers exploit the middle overs effectively, the margin narrows considerably. Japan has shown they can compete closely, as seen in their three-run loss to India and four-run defeat to Cook Islands. A middle-order collapse shifts the match.