Andebol 1
Porto
ABC Braga
Prediction for Porto — ABC Braga
72%
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Rwanda vs Sierra Leone: match preview on 10 September 2026
Rwanda
Sierra Leone
Prediction fixed and will not change after kick-off
Key factors
Form last 5 matches
Rwanda
LWLWL
2 wins · 3 losses
Sierra Leone
WWLLL
2 wins · 3 losses
Head to head 7
6Rwanda
0Draw
1Sierra Leone
- 28 MayRwanda — Sierra Leone89/2:88
- 12 Dec 2025Rwanda — Sierra Leone179/1:132/8
- 8 Dec 2025Rwanda — Sierra Leone158/8:135
- 4 Dec 2025Rwanda — Sierra Leone48/3:47
- 11 Oct 2023Rwanda — Sierra Leone78/5:77
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Analytical content. Not a call to gamble. 18+
Prediction commentary
Based on data as of 8 Sep, 17:30Rwanda win. The pattern is clear: they have won five of six meetings on their own turf, and Sierra Leone's recent form includes two heavy defeats that suggest they cannot match Rwanda's intensity.
Sierra Leone's last two tournament matches read like a cautionary tale. They lost 136-250 to Uganda and 137-192 to Kenya, conceding 442 runs while scoring just 273. That is a run difference of -169 in two games. Rwanda, by contrast, lost 139-144 to Kenya and beat Botswana 204-110, a run difference of +104. The gap in quality between these sides has widened since their last encounter.
The head-to-head record in Rwanda is not close. Rwanda won five of six meetings on their own ground, with only one loss — 107-109 on 10 October 2023. The most recent meeting on 28 May 2026 was a thriller: Rwanda edged Sierra Leone 89-88. In the West Africa Trophy in December 2025, Rwanda won three straight: 48-47, 158-135, and 179-132. Sierra Leone have not won here in seven years.
Rwanda sit third with 2 points from 2 matches (1 win, 1 loss). Sierra Leone are fifth with 0 points from 2 matches, having lost both. Rwanda have a chance to climb; Sierra Leone need a win to stay alive. Rwanda play for position; Sierra Leone fight for survival.
Rwanda's recent form shows they can compete in tight games. They beat Malawi 102-101 and lost to Zambia twice by a single run each (92-93 and 130-131). They have the home advantage. Sierra Leone's last win came months ago, against Mali 99-97 in May. Their recent defeats have been heavy, suggesting they are struggling to contain opposition batting.
The prediction shifts if Sierra Leone replicate the conditions of their 28 May defeat — a game decided by a single run. If they stay within 10 runs throughout, Rwanda's margin of victory narrows to nothing. A draw suits the visitors, and given how they run the clock down, that is the main threat. But the model points to Rwanda winning by 15-20 runs.
But the model points to Rwanda winning by 15-20 runs.