FC Twente

Match report

Twente hosted Karabakh at the Grolsch Weste Stadium on Wednesday evening for the UEFA Conference League playoff round, and the visitors took all three points with a 1-0 victory. We had given Twente a 61 per cent chance of winning, but the match went another way entirely. By then you see what happens when a side controls the tempo but lacks the edge to finish.

Karabakh broke the deadlock in the fifty-second minute when Kady Borges found the net. Twente had already seen Robin Pröpper cautioned in the twenty-third minute, and the game grew tighter after half-time. Aske Adelgaard and Matheus Silva both picked up yellows in the twenty-eighth minute, while Daouda Weidmann and Ramiz Zerrouki followed later. Twente threw bodies forward, bringing on Marco Pjaca and Wout Weghorst together in the sixty-first minute.

The numbers tell one story, the outcome another. Twente held 61 per cent of possession and launched 152 attacks, yet their expected goals sat at just 1.07. They managed ten shots, five on target, but could only convert once. Karabakh, with 39 per cent of the ball, created fewer chances but shot with 57 per cent accuracy. Their goalkeeper made five saves against Twente's three, and the visitors registered 37 clearances to eight from the hosts.

Twente dominated in the air with fourteen successful aerial duels, but Karabakh held their ground and took their moment. The away side now advances, having proved that controlling the game doesn't guarantee progress. Twente's recent form—wins against Zwolle and Dunajská Streda, a loss to Herenwen—couldn't carry them through. Karabakh's trip to Sumgait had ended 1-3, but they responded here with something more valuable than a result: a performance that punished complacency.

Prepared from match data

Key numbers

Possession, % 61 – 39

Shots on target 5 – 4

Shots off target 5 – 3

Expected goals 1.07 – 0.51

🟨 23' Robin Pröpper — Yellow card 🟨 28' Aske Adelgaard — Yellow card 🟨 28' Matheus Silva — Yellow card 🟨 34' Daouda Weidmann — Yellow card ⇄ 46' R. Propper — Substitution ⚽ 52' Kady Borges — Goal 🟨 58' Ramiz Zerrouki — Yellow card ⇄ 61' M. Pjaca — Substitution ⇄ 61' W. Weghorst — Substitution 🟨 66' Daan Rots — Yellow card ⇄ 75' M. Qurbanly — Substitution ⇄ 83' A. Adelgaard — Substitution ⇄ 83' D. Weidmann — Substitution

Match events

23' 0:0 FC Twente Yellow card Robin Pröpper
28' 0:0 FC Twente Yellow card Aske Adelgaard
28' 0:0 Qarabağ FK Yellow card Matheus Silva
34' 0:0 FC Twente Yellow card Daouda Weidmann
46' 0:0 FC Twente Substitution R. Propper off: M. Bruns
52' 0:1 Qarabağ FK Goal Kady Borges assist: M. Qurbanly
58' 0:1 FC Twente Yellow card Ramiz Zerrouki
61' 0:1 FC Twente Substitution M. Pjaca off: K. Hlynsson
61' 0:1 FC Twente Substitution W. Weghorst off: S. Lammers
66' 0:1 FC Twente Yellow card Daan Rots
75' 0:1 Qarabağ FK Substitution M. Qurbanly off: Dani Bolt
83' 0:1 FC Twente Substitution A. Adelgaard off: F. Thorvaldsen
83' 0:1 FC Twente Substitution D. Weidmann off: L. Vennegoor of Hesselink

Statistics

61 Possession, % 39

5 Shots on target 4

5 Shots off target 3

1.07 Expected goals 0.51

2 Big chances 1

152 Attacks 68

5 Corners 3

13 Fouls 4

4 Free kicks 13

1 Offsides 1

5 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

4 Goal kicks 11

30 Throw-ins 26

All statistics

14/1974% Aerial duels 5/1926%

64 Backward passes 60

11 Blocked shots 0

8 Clearances 37

8/2532% Crosses 3/838%

8/1650% Dribbles 7/2035%

1.38 Expected assists 0.25

85 Failed passes 83

3 Goalkeeper saves 5

6 Interceptions 13

15 Key passes 6

31/5358% Long passes 26/6739%

151 Passes into the final third 41

393 Passes in the opposition half 159

155 Passes in own half 192

0.24 Shot accuracy 0.57

9 Shots from outside the box 1

12 Shots inside the box 6

10/1953% Tackles 8/1747%

523 Total passes 343

Line-ups

Starting XI
#	Player	number
1	Lars Unnerstall	1
3	Robin Pröpper	3
28	Bart van Rooij	28
29	A. Adelgor	29
43	Ruud Neustad	43
6	Ramiz Larbi Zerrouki	6
7	Marko Pjaca	7
11	Daan Rots	11
27	Sondre Holmlund Ørjasæter	27
42	Daouda Weidmann	42
9	Wout Weghorst	9

Substitutes
#	Player	number
16	Joël Drommel	16
22	Remko Pasveer	22
12	Guilherme Peixoto	12
24	Krzysztof Kurowski	24
38	Max Bruns	38
4	Mathias Ullereng Kjølø	4
14	Kristian Nökkvi Hlynsson	14
20	Thomas van den Belt	20
10	Sam Lammers	10
17	Philip Thorvaldsen	17
19	Younes Taha	19
25	Lucas Venneboer of Hesselink	25

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Qarabağ FK

Starting XI
#	Player	number
23	Martin Zlomislić	23
2	Matheus de Barros da Silva	2
4	Bence Várkonyi	4
5	Bruno Langa	5
55	Badavi Hüseynov	55
7	Jaly Mouaddib	7
8	Marko Janković	8
20	Kady Iuri Borges Malinowski	20
21	Oleksii Kashchuk	21
88	Samuel Lobato	88
22	Musa Qurbanlı	22

Substitutes
#	Player	number
1	Şahruddin Məhəmmədəliyev	1
99	Mateusz Kochalski	99
13	Bəhlul Mustafazadə	13
18	Dani Bolt	18
32	Hikmat Jabrailzada	32
9	Jonathan Montiel Caballero	9
49	Ali Bashirov	49

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Match prediction: FC Twente — Qarabağ FK

Win: FC Twente

Confidence 61%

Reasoning

Средняя линия 47 букмекеров: победа Твенте 1.52, ничья 4.35, победа Карабах 5.39
Конторы расходятся в оценке: от 1.48 до 1.60 (8%)
Последние 5 матчей Твенте: 2 побед, 1 ничьих, 2 поражений
Последние 5 матчей Карабах: 1 побед, 2 ничьих, 2 поражений

Full prediction

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Recent form

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Qarabağ FK

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FC Twente — Qarabağ FK, UEFA Europa Conference League

Match report

Key numbers

Match events

Statistics

Line-ups

FC Twente

Qarabağ FK

Match prediction: FC Twente — Qarabağ FK

Reasoning

Recent form

FC Twente

Qarabağ FK