ELJ
Plzeň U20
Karlovy Vary U20
Prediction for Plzeň U20 — Karlovy Vary U20
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1º de Maio vs CD Lunda-Sul: match prediction on 21 September 2026
1º de Maio
CD Lunda-Sul
Prediction for
Win: 1º de Maio
45%
probability
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
42%
1
31%
X
27%
2
Average bookmaker line (27)
2.12
1
2.88
X
3.34
2
Odds range
2.00 — 2.18
for outcome 1
Prediction fixed and will not change after kick-off
Reasoning
Based on data as of 18 Sep, 15:01- Первомай — 9. place, 4 points after 4 games (1 wins, 1 draws, 2 losses)
- Лунда-Суль — 8. place, 5 points after 4 games (1 wins, 2 draws, 1 losses)
- Первомай, last 5 games: 1 wins, 2 draws, 2 losses
- Лунда-Суль, last 5 games: 1 wins, 3 draws, 1 losses
- Head-to-head: 2 games, Первомай — 2, Лунда-Суль — 0
Key factors
Form last 5 matches
1º de Maio
DDLWL
1 win · 2 draws · 2 losses
CD Lunda-Sul
DDDLW
1 win · 3 draws · 1 loss
Head to head 2
21º de Maio
0Draw
0CD Lunda-Sul
All head-to-head
Bookmaker market
27
bookmakers counted
2.12
Average bookmaker line
2.00 — 2.18
Odds range
More predictions
All match predictions
Analytical content. Not a call to gamble. 18+
Prediction commentary
Based on data as of 18 Sep, 15:01I'm backing 1º de Maio at 2.11. The hosts have swept the recent head-to-head clean—two wins from two meetings—and despite sitting a point behind their visitors in the table, they carry the psychological edge into this Girabola clash.
Unbeaten in the rivalry
1º de Maio won 1:0 at home in December 2025 and 1:0 away in May 2026. CD Lunda-Sul have not won a single encounter in this period. That pattern matters more than the current standings, where the visitors hold 5 points to the hosts' 4 after identical four-match campaigns. The hosts may be tenth while Lunda-Sul sit eighth, but the recent history suggests a different hierarchy between these two sides.
Both teams have drawn more often than they've won recently. 1º de Maio's last five matches produced one victory, two draws and two defeats for 5 points, with goals level at 6:6. CD Lunda-Sul managed one win, three draws and one loss for 6 points, scoring 5 and conceding 5. Neither side has found consistent rhythm, yet the hosts have shown they can close out tight games against this particular opponent while the visitors struggle to convert their draw-heavy performances into results.
The model expects 1º de Maio to generate 1.2 expected goals against 0.8 for CD Lunda-Sul. A 31% probability for a draw sits alongside a 37% chance both teams score. The most likely scoreline is 1:0 at 17%, followed by 0:0 at 14% and 1:1 at 13%. Three or more goals appear in 31% of simulations. The market agrees—the line has barely moved, with the home win holding steady at 2.11 and the away price drifting down from 3.36 to 3.34 across 27 bookmakers.
A draw suits the visitors' temperament—they've drawn three of their last five matches and are comfortable grinding results. If CD Lunda-Sul can absorb pressure and exploit their higher shot volume of 88.67 per match against the hosts' 68.38, they could steal a point. The model flags a 31% chance of stalemate, and given how both sides have struggled to win recently, that remains the primary threat to my selection.