Andebol 1
Porto
ABC Braga
Prediction for Porto — ABC Braga
72%
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AIK Stockholm vs Hammarby FF: match prediction on 30 August 2026
AIK Stockholm
Hammarby FF
Prediction for
Win: Hammarby FF
55%
probability
Outcome probabilities (1X2) · by our model
23%
1
23%
X
55%
2
Prediction fixed and will not change after kick-off
Reasoning
Based on data as of 28 Aug, 13:10- АИК Стокгольм — 6. place, 28 points after 17 games (8 wins, 4 draws, 5 losses)
- Хаммарби — 2. place, 36 points after 18 games (11 wins, 3 draws, 4 losses)
- АИК Стокгольм, last 5 games: 3 wins, 1 draws, 1 losses
- Хаммарби, last 5 games: 4 wins, 1 losses
- Head-to-head: 9 games, АИК Стокгольм — 3, 2 draws, Хаммарби — 4
Key factors
Form last 5 matches
AIK Stockholm
WWWWD
4 wins · 1 draw
Hammarby FF
WWWLD
3 wins · 1 draw · 1 loss
Head to head 14
5AIK Stockholm
3Draw
6Hammarby FF
- 24 MayHammarby FF — AIK Stockholm1:2
- 19 Oct 2025Hammarby FF — AIK Stockholm2:1
- 18 May 2025AIK Stockholm — Hammarby FF0:0
- 29 Sep 2024AIK Stockholm — Hammarby FF1:0
- 19 May 2024Hammarby FF — AIK Stockholm2:1
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Prediction commentary
Based on data as of 28 Aug, 13:10Hammarby FF win — 65%
Hammarby FF come into this derby as clear favourites, sitting second in the table with eight points clear of sixth-placed AIK. The visitors have not lost in five matches, scoring 12 goals in that run and conceding just one. AIK have collected 10 points from their last five games but lost their most recent home fixture 0:3 to Örgryte, a result that undermines any notion of home advantage here.
Hammarby FF's attack has been ruthless. Five matches, 12 goals, one clean sheet conceded in four of them. The model expects them to score 1.9 goals, which translates to one or two in most simulated versions of this match. AIK's expected goals are 1.1 — they will most often find the net once or twice. The 23% draw probability is low, and the 57% chance of three or more goals suggests this should be open.
Both sides show a pattern of late-game vulnerability. AIK concede 31% of their goals after the 76th minute, while Hammarby FF concede 45% in that same window. Hammarby score 26% of their goals late as well. If this match stays level into the final 15 minutes, the side that keeps its shape will have the advantage — and Hammarby's defensive record in the opening 75 minutes (14% of goals conceded) is stronger than AIK's (19%).
Head-to-head history does not help AIK. In the last nine meetings Hammarby FF have won four, AIK three, with two draws. The most recent encounter at Friends Arena on 24 May 2026 ended 1:2 to AIK, but before that Hammarby won at home 2:1 in October 2025 and 2:1 in May 2024. Two defeats at this venue in the last three years is not a trend to build on.
The model's three most likely scorelines are 1:1, 1:2 and 0:1 — all small margins. A Hammarby FF win requires them to score first and not let AIK's late-game tendency (35% of their goals come after the 76th minute) drag this into extra time. If AIK score early and sit deep, the outcome changes.
Hammarby FF's possession average of 64% compared to AIK's 54% suggests they will control territory. Their shots on target average 7.4 per match versus AIK's 5.22. The data points toward a narrow victory for the visitors, provided they take their chances in the first 75 minutes and do not let the game slip into the period where both sides are most likely to concede.