Andebol 1
Prediction for Porto — ABC Braga
72%
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Naft Maysan
Prediction for
Win: Al Quwa Al Jawiya
58%
probability
Outcome probabilities (1X2) · by our model
Prediction fixed and will not change after kick-off
Form last 5 matches
Head to head 12
Bookmaker market
No bookmaker data
Analytical content. Not a call to gamble. 18+
Prediction commentary
Based on data as of 27 Aug, 17:03Al Quwa Al Jawiya to win. They have not lost a single game this season, while Naft Maysan are already in the bottom three after three rounds. The head-to-head record is heavily one-sided: five victories and one draw in six meetings, with the most recent encounter ending 2:0 in Baghdad on 28 May.
Naft Maysan's start has been difficult. They have drawn twice and lost once, picking up just two points from their opening fixtures. Their last outing was a 4:0 defeat away at Al Zawra'a, and they have scored only two goals across five matches. The attack has been quiet — two consecutive 0:0 draws at home against Naft and Al-jolan Sc.
Al Quwa Al Jawiya have been harder to break down. Three draws from three games means they are unbeaten, and their recent five-match run shows two wins and three draws. They scored ten goals and conceded seven in that period, including a 3:3 thriller away at Newroz and a 3:2 home win over Zakho.
Naft Maysan have dominated the head-to-head historically, but that has reversed sharply. Al Quwa Al Jawiya have won five of the last six meetings, including both fixtures this season. The away win at the 28 May match was convincing — two clean goals against a side that has already lost to Al Zawra'a and failed to score in two home games. The visitors do not need to open up; they can control the tempo.
Naft Maysan are risky at home, but this time they are the visitors. Their away record is poor — the 4:0 loss at Al Zawra'a is telling. Al Quwa Al Jawiya have shown they can grind out results, and their defensive stability (seven conceded in five games) gives them confidence. The most likely scorelines are 1:0 and 2:0, both home wins. The hosts are the clear choice.
A home victory is the prediction. This would not hold if Naft Maysan find an early goal — their late-game threat is real, with 42% of their goals coming after the 76th minute. If they survive the opening half, they could turn things around.
The scenario falls apart if Naft Maysan score first and manage the game. Given their recent form, that is unlikely.