MPBL
Prediction for Bulacan Kuyas — San Juan Knights
67%
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Atletico Torque
Cerro Largo
Prediction for
Win: Atletico Torque
50%
probability
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Average bookmaker line (48)
Odds range
1.40 — 2.12
for outcome 1
Prediction fixed and will not change after kick-off
Form last 5 matches
Head to head 12
Bookmaker market
Analytical content. Not a call to gamble. 18+
Prediction commentary
Based on data as of 2 Sep, 23:09Atletico Torque began the Primera División - Apertura campaign with a perfect record, winning three of their first three matches to sit second on nine points. Cerro Largo, meanwhile, had played seven games and accumulated eleven points to lead the table. The visitors were in poor recent form, having drawn four of their last five matches without a win, while the hosts had lost only once in that period. Atletico Torque won the fixture 1-0.
Season averages
Cerro Largo controlled more of the ball, averaging fifty per cent possession compared to Atletico Torque’s forty-five per cent over their last ten matches. However, the hosts generated more accurate attacking output, averaging 4.71 shots on target against Cerro Largo’s 3.38.
Betting movements
Before the match, the market moved sharply towards the home side. The away win price rose from 4.85 to 6.33, a thirty point six per cent increase. The draw price also drifted from 3.54 to 3.95, indicating that bookmakers had priced in the likelihood of a home victory based on the contrast in form.
Season context
The result kept Atletico Torque at the top of their current run, though Cerro Largo remained higher in the standings due to playing more games. The goal came late in the game, fitting the pattern of Atletico Torque’s scoring, with twenty-six per cent of their total goals coming in the final fifteen minutes. Cerro Largo’s defense had conceded twenty per cent of their goals in the same period.