Caernarfon Town vs The New Saints: match prediction on 31 August 2026

They have not lost a game this season and have won every one of the last six meetings against Caernarfon Town. The model puts their expected goals at 2.2 to 1.2, and the confidence in a visitors' victory sits at 58%. That is not a certainty — it is a probability shaped by form, history and the way each side has played so far.

The table tells the story

After five matches The New Saints sit second with 13 points from four wins and a draw, while Caernarfon Town are fifth on 12 points from four wins and a loss. The difference in results is small, but the difference in quality is not. The visitors have conceded just one goal across their entire campaign, compared with six for the home side. That defensive record has not been built on luck; it shows in the numbers. The gap in attacking output is wider still: 116.2 attacks per match for the visitors against 93.2 for the hosts.

Head-to-head dominance

The last six encounters between these sides have produced six wins for The New Saints, no draws, no losses. The most recent was a 4-0 victory at Caernarfon's ground in March, and before that came a 2-1 win at home in February. Caernarfon Town have managed only one victory in 16 meetings over recent years. That pattern does not change because of a new season or a change of venue. The visitors know how to break this side down, and they have done it repeatedly.

Timing tells a different story

Caernarfon Town score heavily in the opening 15 minutes — 23% of their goals — but The New Saints are more dangerous later. They score 31% of their goals after the 75th minute, and that is where the match could be decided. The visitors also concede 44% of their goals in the final quarter, which is a vulnerability Caernarfon might exploit. But The New Saints have not been tested in the same way. Their only draw came against Penybont, and that ended 0-0.

When the prediction fails

A draw suits Caernarfon Town. If they can hold The New Saints to a stalemate — and given how the visitors run the clock down in the final stages, that is the main threat — then the prediction breaks. The model gives a 20% chance of a draw, and both teams to score sits at 63%. If Caernarfon score first and manage to keep The New Saints quiet, the visitors' confidence could waver. Their late-game vulnerability is real, and if the home side catches them in that window, the result flips. A goal in the first 15 minutes would also change the dynamic, as Caernarfon are strongest there and The New Saints have conceded nothing in that period so far.

The most likely scorelines point to 1:2 (10%), 1:1 (9%) and 0:2 (8%). The model does not predict exact outcomes but shows where the balance lies. Three or more goals are expected in 66% of simulated versions. The New Saints have the edge, but not by much.