Costa Rica vs Curaçao: match prediction on 25 September 2026

Costa Rica secured a victory over Curaçao in a CONCACAF Nations League fixture on 25 September 2026, defying a recent run of poor results that had left the hosts winless in five matches. The result shifted the betting market before kickoff, with the price for a home win dropping from 1.71 to 1.67, reflecting confidence in a side that had struggled to find the net recently.

Scoring Patterns and Match Flow

The scoring distribution for Costa Rica in their previous five games suggests a reliance on late finishes, with 100 per cent of their two goals arriving in the final 15 minutes of play. Curaçao showed a more dispersed pattern, with a third of their goals scored in the closing stages and another third in the period between 46 and 60 minutes. This statistical trend indicated that Costa Rica would likely assert control as the match progressed.

Statistical Performance

Despite averaging 45 per cent possession and recording 2.8 shots on target per game in their last six fixtures, Curaçao failed to translate their stats into dominance. Costa Rica averaged only 34 per cent possession and 1.8 shots on target, yet their efficiency proved superior. The expected goals model predicted a high-scoring affair, with Costa Rica projected to score 4.3 goals against Curaçao’s 0.8, a margin that aligned with the final outcome.

Context and Consequences

The result moved the probability of a three-goal or more game to 87 per cent, confirming the expectation of an open encounter. This win provides Costa Rica with momentum following a period where they had earned only two points from their last five outings.