Deportivo Pereira vs Santa Fe: match prediction on 29 September 2026

The hosts enter the fixture eighth in the mid-table split with eight points from nine games, while the visitors sit seventh in the full season standings on 29 points after 19 matches. The win extends Santa Fe’s positive run to two victories in their last five matches, compared with Deportivo Pereira’s winless sequence of five games.

The decisive moment arrived late in the contest when Hugo Rodallega Martínez, the competition’s leading scorer with 15 goals in the past six months, struck to put the visitors ahead. Nahuel Lautaro Bustos, another of Santa Fe’s key forwards on 11 goals, had earlier equalised after Deportivo Pereira had taken an early lead. The home side’s only goal came in the opening period, but they could not add a second despite creating chances in the final 15 minutes.

Santa Fe generated more attacking threat throughout the match, averaging 5.2 shots on target per game this season against Deportivo Pereira’s 3.4. The visitors also registered 5.6 corners per match compared with 3.1 for the hosts, reflecting their greater territorial dominance. Expected goals figures sit close together at 1.05 for Santa Fe and 0.9 for Deportivo Pereira, suggesting the outcome could have swung either way had finishing been sharper on both sides.

Both sides received red cards on the day: Sebastian Urrea for Deportivo Pereira and Luis Ángel Palacios Mena for Santa Fe. The betting market had shifted slightly before kick-off, with Santa Fe’s away win price tightening from 1.84 to 1.82, while the draw drifted to 3.63 and the home win shortened to 3.91. A pre-match model had predicted a 34 per cent probability of a draw and a likely scoreline of 1–1, but the away side held firm to claim all three points.