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Porto
ABC Braga
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72%
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Duhok vs Al Quwa Al Jawiya: match prediction on 3 September 2026
Duhok
Al Quwa Al Jawiya
Prediction for
Win: Al Quwa Al Jawiya
44%
probability
Outcome probabilities (1X2) · by our model
29%
1
27%
X
44%
2
Prediction fixed and will not change after kick-off
Reasoning
Based on data as of 1 Sep, 19:04- Дахук — 13. place, 4 points after 4 games (0 wins, 4 draws, 0 losses)
- Аль-Кувва аль-Джауийя — 12. place, 4 points after 4 games (0 wins, 4 draws, 0 losses)
- Дахук, last 5 games: 0 wins, 4 draws, 1 losses
- Аль-Кувва аль-Джауийя, last 5 games: 1 wins, 4 draws, 0 losses
- Head-to-head: 9 games, Дахук — 4, 2 draws, Аль-Кувва аль-Джауийя — 3
Key factors
Form last 5 matches
Duhok
DDDWD
1 win · 4 draws
Al Quwa Al Jawiya
DDLWL
1 win · 2 draws · 2 losses
Head to head 9
4Duhok
2Draw
3Al Quwa Al Jawiya
- 10 MayDuhok — Al Quwa Al Jawiya3:0
- 18 AprDuhok — Al Quwa Al Jawiya1:2
- 30 Dec 2025Al Quwa Al Jawiya — Duhok0:2
- 19 May 2025Al Quwa Al Jawiya — Duhok4:0
- 14 Jan 2025Duhok — Al Quwa Al Jawiya1:0
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Prediction commentary
Based on data as of 1 Sep, 19:04Duhok vs Al Quwa Al Jawiya: Draw
30% confidence
The model points to a draw. Both sides are winless but unbeaten after four matches, and the most likely scoreline is 1:1 at 13%. A draw suits both teams equally — neither has lost, neither has won, and the data shows no clear path to victory for either side.
Duhok have drawn four of their last five matches, conceding as many as they scored (5:6). Their recent results include a 3:3 home draw with Al-Talaba and a 1:1 away at Naft. Only the 0:1 loss to Diyala breaks the pattern. They score heavily late — 32% of their goals come after the 76th minute — but they also concede heavily then, 28% of their goals against. Al Quwa Al Jawiya are more consistent: four draws and one win in five, with 9 goals scored and 8 conceded. Their win came at home against Zakho, 3:2. They are even more dangerous in the final minutes, with 40% of their goals arriving after the 76th minute.
The head-to-head record does not favour either side. In nine meetings, Duhok have won four, Al Quwa Al Jawiya three, and two ended level. The most recent encounter was a 3:0 victory for Duhok at home on 10 May 2026. Home advantage has mattered, but not consistently.
Both teams sit in the bottom half of the table. Al Quwa Al Jawiya are 12th with 4 points from 4 matches. Duhok are 13th with the same tally. Neither has lost, and both have drawn every game so far this season. The table does not separate them.
The model gives Duhok 1.1 expected goals and Al Quwa Al Jawiya 1.4. The draw probability is 27%, both teams to score 50%, and three or more goals 46%. The three most likely scorelines are 1:1, 0:1, and 1:2.
A draw stops being the outcome if Al Quwa Al Jawiya's late-game strength proves decisive. They score 40% of their goals after the 76th minute and concede only 12% in that period. If the match stays level into the final quarter, they have the edge. A draw also stops being the outcome if Duhok's defensive fragility in the first half — 23% of goals conceded between the 31st and 45th minute — leads to an early lead they cannot hold.