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Entebbe UPPC vs UPDF: match prediction on 1 September 2026
Entebbe UPPC
UPDF
Prediction for
Win: Entebbe UPPC
60%
probability
Outcome probabilities (1X2) · by our model
60%
1
27%
X
13%
2
Prediction fixed and will not change after kick-off
Reasoning
Based on data as of 30 Aug, 14:13- Энтеббе УППК — 4. place, 3 points after 1 games (1 wins, 0 losses)
- УПДФ — 9. place, 1 points after 1 games (0 wins, 1 draws, 0 losses)
- Энтеббе УППК, last 5 games: 3 wins, 2 draws, 0 losses
- УПДФ, last 5 games: 0 wins, 2 draws, 3 losses
- Head-to-head: 2 games, Энтеббе УППК — 2, УПДФ — 0
Key factors
Form last 5 matches
Entebbe UPPC
DDWWW
3 wins · 2 draws
UPDF
LDLDL
2 draws · 3 losses
Head to head 2
2Entebbe UPPC
0Draw
0UPDF
All head-to-head
Bookmaker market
No bookmaker data
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Analytical content. Not a call to gamble. 18+
Prediction commentary
Based on data as of 30 Aug, 14:13Entebbe UPPC to win, confidence 68%
Entebbe UPPC sit fourth with three points from one game. They beat UPDF 2:0 at home on 7 May and have carried that momentum through five matches: three wins and two draws, conceding just one goal while scoring eight. Their latest outing was a 1:0 away victory over Vipers on 28 August. UPDF are ninth after drawing their opener against Kataka 0:0. Their last five games have brought no wins—two draws and three defeats, with six goals conceded against two scored. They lost 1:2 away to SC Villa on 23 May and 1:2 at home to KCCA on 13 May.
The head-to-head record is straightforward. Entebbe UPPC have won both meetings this season. They took a 1:0 win at UPDF on 21 January before the 2:0 victory at home in May. UPDF have not beaten their opponents in these encounters.
The statistical model expects Entebbe UPPC to score 1.4 goals and UPDF 0.5. The draw probability sits at 27%, both teams to score at 29%, and three or more goals at 29%. The most likely scoreline is 1:0 at 21%, followed by 0:0 and 2:0 at 15% each. UPDF's defensive vulnerability shows in their conceding pattern: 57% of their goals conceded came in the final 15 minutes of matches. They have not lost concentration in the opening 15 minutes—only 14% of goals against them came in that window.
A draw suits UPDF given their tendency to grind out results. They drew two of their last five and have not kept a clean sheet in defeats. If they manage to absorb pressure and hit on the counter, particularly in the closing stages where they have shown weakness at the back, the model's edge disappears. Entebbe UPPC would need to be patient rather than open up too early.
Entebbe UPPC's win over UPDF in May provides additional context beyond the table position. UPDF's away record includes losses to SC Villa and Entebbe UPPC, while their home results against Calvary and KCCA ended in draws and a defeat.