FC Bacau vs Universitatea Craiova: match prediction on 3 September 2026

Bacau win

FC Bacau are the clear favourites here on current form. They have gone five matches without defeat — three wins and two draws — while scoring 11 goals and conceding just two. Their recent record includes two 3-0 victories in the Cup, and the model backs them to score 1.9 goals against a Craiova side that has managed only one win from their last five outings.

Craiova's struggle to close games

Universitatea Craiova have drawn three of their last five matches, including a 1-1 draw away at Rapid on 31 August and a 1-1 Europa League home draw against Ararat-Armenia. They have conceded 31% of their goals in the final 15 minutes of matches, a pattern that could prove costly against a Bacău side that scores 28% of their goals between the 61st and 75th minute.

Discipline concerns

Craiova carry disciplinary baggage into this fixture. Monday Etim and Nicușor Bancu each have five yellow cards and are one booking away from suspension. Alexandru Crețu received a red card on 16 August. Bacău's A. Coaja has already been sent off once this season, but the visitors face the immediate threat of losing key players through accumulation.

Model expectations

The model gives a 22% probability for a draw and 53% for both teams to score. The most likely scorelines are 1-0 (11%), 1-1 (11%) and 2-0 (10%). A total of three or more goals is expected at 54%. Bacău's expected goals of 1.9 contrast sharply with Craiova's 1.0, reflecting the home side's superior attacking output.

Where the prediction breaks

This conclusion stops holding if Craiova find a second wind in the opening 15 minutes. They concede 20% of their goals in that period, but Bacău score 24% of theirs — an early strike could shift momentum. A draw suits the visitors given how they tend to run the clock down, and that remains the main threat to a Bacău victory.

The service pick stands at FC Bacau win with 59% confidence.