Hapoel Rishon LeZion vs Kafr Qasim: match prediction on 30 August 2026

Hapoel Rishon LeZion to win. The hosts have started the season with two victories and sit on six points, while Kafr Qasim trail in sixth with three. The model projects 1.5 goals for the home side against 0.9 for the visitors, and the most probable outcome is a 1:0 scoreline at 13%. A home victory is the baseline prediction, though it stops holding if Kafr Qasim replicate the dominance they have shown over this fixture in recent years.

The table tells a simple story of two matches played. Hapoel Rishon LeZion have won both games they have contested so far, accumulating a full six points from four available. Kafr Qasim have one win and one defeat, sitting three points behind in the standings. That gap matters less than the pattern visible in their head-to-head record.

Kafr Qasim have won five of the last six meetings between these sides. Hapoel Rishon LeZion have never won a match against them in that period. The results read like a list of defeats: 0:2 away, 0:3 at home, 0:1 away, 1:1 draw, 0:2 away, and 0:2 away. Only one result in the past six games has gone in favour of the home side, and that was a draw.

Recent form offers a counterweight to the historical record. Hapoel Rishon LeZion have taken ten points from their last five Liga Leumit matches, with three wins, one draw and one loss. Kafr Qasim have collected eight points from five games, recording two victories, two draws and one defeat. The home side scored ten goals in that span while conceding five, and their attack has found rhythm in the middle third of matches, with 33% of their goals arriving in the 46–60 minute window.

The model's expected goals figures suggest a tight contest. Hapoel Rishon LeZion are projected to score 1.5 goals on average across simulated versions of this fixture, while Kafr Qasim are expected to find the net 0.9 times. The draw probability sits at 26%, and both teams to score is priced at 47%. Three or more goals in the match are anticipated 44% of the time. The home side's vulnerability in the final quarter of matches—21% of goals conceded between the 76th and 90th minutes—could be exploited if Kafr Qasim maintain pressure late on.

A home win remains the most likely outcome, but it depends on Kafr Qasim failing to impose the pattern that has defined their encounters with Hapoel Rishon LeZion in recent seasons. If the visitors come away with a point, the prediction dissolves.