Kafr Qasim vs Hapoel Kfar Saba: match prediction on 17 September 2026

Kafr Qasim win is my prediction for this Liga Leumit fixture, with 65% confidence. The hosts have shown they can grind out results at home despite their position in the table, and the model's expected goals figure of 1.3 to 1.1 in their favour points to a narrow advantage. This outcome stops holding if Hapoel Kfar Saba avoid conceding in the opening quarter of an hour, when they have typically been solid.

The hosts sit 13th after five matchdays with four points from one win, one draw and three losses. They ground out a 0:0 draw at home against Ironi Modi'in on 7 September and bounced back with a 4:0 win over Hapoel Acre on 23 August. Away form has been harder, with losses to Maccabi Herzliya and Hapoel Rishon LeZion.

Hapoel Kfar Saba occupy 10th place with six points from two wins and three defeats. Their recent run shows two victories and three losses across five games, but they have conceded 12 goals while scoring only six. A 2:0 home win against Maccabi Kiryat Gat on 10 September was followed by a heavy 1:6 defeat away at Hapoel Ra'anana. They have zero draws in their last five matches. They play for the win, not the point.

The head-to-head record heavily favours the visitors. Across ten meetings in recent years Hapoel Kfar Saba have won seven times, Kafr Qasim once, with two draws. The most recent league encounter ended 1:0 to Hapoel on 10 April 2026. Kafr Qasim did manage a 1:0 State Cup victory on 15 January 2026, but league meetings have consistently gone the other way.

Kafr Qasim score 32% of their goals in the 46-60 minute window and another 32% in the final 15 minutes. They concede 28% of their goals in the 31-45 period and 22% in the opening 15 minutes. Hapoel Kfar Saba concede 33% of their goals in the 76-90 minute window, which aligns with Kafr Qasim's late-strength scoring pattern.

The model projects 1.3 expected goals for Kafr Qasim and 1.1 for Hapoel Kfar Saba. A draw carries a 28% probability, both teams to score sits at 48%, and three or more goals total at 42%. The three most likely scorelines are 1:1 at 13%, 1:0 at 12%, and 0:1 at 10%. These figures support a tight match where the home side holds a marginal edge.

A draw suits Hapoel Kfar Saba's approach, and given how they tend to manage games, that is the main threat to this prediction. If they avoid an early goal and control the tempo, the visitors could secure a point. The outcome would also shift if Kafr Qasim fail to find their late-game rhythm, which has been their most productive period.