Andebol 1
Porto
ABC Braga
Prediction for Porto — ABC Braga
72%
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Kitara vs URA: match prediction on 10 September 2026
Kitara
URA
Prediction for
Win: Kitara
54%
probability
Outcome probabilities (1X2) · by our model
54%
1
28%
X
18%
2
Prediction fixed and will not change after kick-off
Reasoning
Based on data as of 8 Sep, 14:06- Китара — 11. place, 1 points after 1 games (0 wins, 1 draws, 0 losses)
- УРА — 8. place, 3 points after 2 games (1 wins, 1 losses)
- Китара, last 5 games: 1 wins, 3 draws, 1 losses
- УРА, last 5 games: 2 wins, 2 draws, 1 losses
- Head-to-head: 7 games, Китара — 3, 2 draws, УРА — 2
Key factors
Form last 5 matches
Kitara
LDDDW
1 win · 3 draws · 1 loss
URA
DDWWL
2 wins · 2 draws · 1 loss
Head to head 8
3Kitara
2Draw
3URA
- 19 FebKitara — URA1:1
- 4 Dec 2025URA — Kitara0:1
- 1 Mar 2025Kitara — URA1:0
- 1 Nov 2024URA — Kitara2:0
- 1 Jun 2024URA — Kitara3:0
Bookmaker market
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Analytical content. Not a call to gamble. 18+
Prediction commentary
Based on data as of 8 Sep, 14:06Kitara are the service pick at 54% confidence. The model expects Kitara to score more (1.4 goals) than URA (0.7), and the most likely outcome is a 1:0 home victory. The conclusion stops holding if URA exploit Kitara's vulnerability in the 61-75 minute period, where the hosts concede 40% of their goals.
Kitara have barely started the campaign. One match played, one point, a draw against Police at home. Their last five fixtures show a pattern of grinding results: one win in the CAF Confederation Cup away at Mogadishu City, three draws, and one loss away at Express. They have scored eight goals and conceded eight across those five games, averaging 1.6 goals per match in both directions.
URA have played twice, winning once and losing once, sitting three points ahead of Kitara in eighth place. Their last five results include two victories, two draws, and one defeat at home to SC Villa. They have netted six goals and conceded three in that span, a tighter defensive record than Kitara's recent outings.
The head-to-head record over seven meetings favours Kitara with three wins to URA's two, with two draws in between. The most recent encounter ended 1:1 at Kitara's ground. The model's expected goals figure of 1.4 for Kitara against 0.7 for URA produces a 28% probability of a draw and a 37% chance both teams score. The three most probable scorelines are 1:0 at 18%, 0:0 at 13%, and 2:0 at 12%.
Kitara score heavily in the first half, with 31% of their goals in the opening 15 minutes and 46% between 31 and 45 minutes. They concede most in the 61-75 minute window at 40%. URA's attacking distribution is more spread, with 38% of their goals in the 31-45 minute period and 25% in both the 61-75 and 76-90 minute segments. Their defensive weakness mirrors Kitara's, conceding 33% of goals in the 31-45 minute period and again 33% in the final 15 minutes.
The prediction rests on Kitara's ability to capitalise on URA's first-half defensive vulnerability while avoiding the late-game collapse that has cost them 40% of goals conceded in a single 15-minute stretch. If URA maintain their composure through that period and score late, the model's edge disappears.
Service pick: Kitara win, 54% confidence