Llapi vs Malisheva: match prediction on 14 September 2026

Llapi to win. Confidence 62%.

Llapi take all three points on Sunday. The model puts them ahead at 1.5 expected goals to Malisheva's 1.2, and the 12% probability attached to a 1:1 scoreline sits alongside a 10% chance of a 1:0 home win. Those two outcomes alone account for 22% of the simulation's results, and the remaining likelihood leans toward a narrow home victory rather than a draw or away success. Llapi win only if Malisheva's defence, tight for five matches, stops the late surge.

Malisheva sit third with 10 points from five games, three wins and one draw between them. Llapi occupy seventh with three points, one victory and four defeats. The gap looks wider than the raw numbers suggest because Malisheva's results have been more consistent. Their only loss came away to Dukagjini 0:2 on 10 September, while their other four fixtures brought either wins or a point. A draw suits Malisheva's approach because they can control the tempo and protect their lead if they take one. The model gives the draw a 25% probability, and both teams to score sits at 56%. If Malisheva come out and run the clock down rather than push for a winner, the home advantage evaporates. That is the main threat to the Llapi prediction.

Llapi's single win also came away, a 4:0 victory over Vushtrria on 8 September. The other four matches ended in defeat: 1:2 at home to Dukagjini, 0:4 away to Prishtina, 0:2 at home to Gjilani, and 3:5 away to Drita. They have not drawn a game since the campaign began.

Llapi have scored 24 goals in total, and 42% of them have arrived in the final 15 minutes. They have not registered a single goal between the 61st and 75th minutes. Malisheva, by contrast, have conceded 42% of their 33 goals in the closing quarter of an hour. That overlap creates a scenario where Llapi could exploit the period when Malisheva's defence is most vulnerable.

Malisheva's attacking distribution shows 24% of their 50 goals coming after the 75th minute, while Llapi's defensive record reveals 19% of goals conceded in the same window. Neither side dominates the opening 30 minutes, but the late phase is where this match could be decided.

There have been 19 meetings in recent years. Llapi have 7 wins, Malisheva 6, and 6 draws separate them. The last three fixtures tell a different story: Llapi won 3:2 at home in May, Malisheva took a 2:0 victory away in March, and they drew 1:1 in the Cup in March. The most recent result was a home win for Llapi, and the pattern of close scores suggests neither side can be dismissed.