Ludogorets Razgrad vs Septemvri Sofia: match prediction on 14 September 2026

Ludogorets controlled the tempo of the game, averaging 5.2 shots on target per match in their recent form, compared to 3.67 for the visitors. Ludogorets created 105.3 attacks per game on average, while Septemvri managed 87.2, giving them more opportunities to break down the defence.

The model predicted a 23 per cent probability of a draw. However, Ludogorets’ defensive record remained robust, having conceded only 41 goals in total across their season so far. Septemvri, meanwhile, had conceded 24 goals in a similar period, but their inability to contain the home side’s attack in the final third proved decisive.

Ludogorets’ goal distribution showed consistency across the pitch, with 18 per cent of their 57 goals coming in the first 15 minutes and 19 per cent in the closing stages. Septemvri struggled to find rhythm early on, scoring 0 per cent of their 15 goals in the opening quarter. Their primary threat came in the 46-60 minute window, where they accounted for 33 per cent of their total goals.

Septemvri leak late. 25 per cent of their goals conceded arrive after the 76th minute. Ludogorets capitalized on this pattern, adding 19 per cent of their own goals in the same timeframe. Ludogorets have not lost in eight. Septemvri have fallen four times, which included a heavy 3-0 loss at home to CSKA Sofia in their previous outing.

Septemvri’s only victory in that period came in a friendly in July 2026, while league encounters have largely favoured the home side.

The result leaves Ludogorets with 20 points from eight games, sitting second in the table with an unbeaten record of six wins and two draws.