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Martinique vs El Salvador: match prediction on 5 October 2026

CONCACAF Nations League Stade Pierre-Aliker Fort-de-France Pending Match page
Martinique El Salvador

Prediction for

Win: El Salvador

71%

probability

Outcome probabilities (1X2) · by our model

6% 1
23% X
71% 2

Prediction fixed and will not change after kick-off

Prediction commentary

Based on data as of 4 Oct, 23:05

El Salvador extend dominance with victory in Fort-de-France

El Salvador extended dominance with victory in Fort-de-France

El Salvador averaged 48% possession and created 82.6 attacks per match in the preceding five games, while Martinique averaged 46% possession and 66.25 attacks. The visitors registered 2.33 shots on target per game, compared to Martinique’s 2.5. El Salvador’s expected goals average of 1.14 suggests they created higher-quality opportunities than Martinique’s output. The visitors created one big chance per game on average, whereas Martinique’s data does not indicate big chances created. El Salvador’s shots accuracy stood at 23%, slightly ahead of Martinique’s 22%. The statistical model had predicted El Salvador to score 3.3 goals and Martinique 0.4, with a 3-1 scoreline falling within the probable range of outcomes.

Recent form defines the hierarchy

El Salvador entered the fixture with two wins, one draw, and two losses in their last five matches, scoring eight goals and conceding twelve. Their sole recent loss was a 6-0 defeat away to Guatemala on 29 September. Martinique had suffered four losses and one draw in their last five matches, scoring four goals and conceding ten. Their last goal came in the 26 September defeat to El Salvador, and they had no wins in that period. El Salvador’s top scorer in the last five games was Brayan Alexander Gil Hurtado with two goals, while Martinique’s leading scorers were B. Moltenis and Janis Antiste, each with one goal. G. Barrera of El Salvador received a red card on 26 September and may have been suspended, though the match report does not confirm his participation.

Head-to-head record confirms El Salvador’s edge

El Salvador and Martinique have played five matches since June 2023, with two wins each and one draw. El Salvador won 3-1 at home on 26 September 2026 and 1-0 away on 29 March 2026. Martinique won 1-0 at home on 13 October 2023 and 2-1 away on 26 June 2023 in the Gold Cup. The draw occurred on 18 October 2023 in the Nations League.

Reasoning

Based on data as of 4 Oct, 23:05
  • Мартиника, last 5 games: 0 wins, 1 draws, 4 losses
  • Эль-Сальвадор, last 5 games: 2 wins, 1 draws, 2 losses
  • Head-to-head: 5 games, Мартиника — 2, 1 draws, Эль-Сальвадор — 2

Key factors

Form last 5 matches

Martinique DLLLW 1 win · 1 draw · 3 losses
El Salvador LDWLL 1 win · 1 draw · 3 losses

Head to head 5

2Martinique 1Draw 2El Salvador
All head-to-head

Bookmaker market

No bookmaker data

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Analytical content. Not a call to gamble. 18+