Mbarara City vs NEC: match prediction on 11 September 2026

NEC to win at 1.73. The visitors carry momentum from two consecutive victories and have dominated this fixture over recent years, while Mbarara City sit bottom of the table after a solitary defeat. The market has tightened on the away side, with the price dropping 2.1% since opening on 10 September, and the model's expected goals of 1.2 for NEC against 0.7 for the hosts point in the same direction.

The league positions tell a straightforward story. NEC occupy fourth place with six points from two matches, winning both. Mbarara City languish in sixteenth after one game, having lost 0:1 away to Police and accumulating zero points. The gap between them is not merely numerical — it is reflected in confidence levels and the way each side approaches matches.

Mbarara City's last five games produced two wins and three losses, with five goals scored and eight conceded. Their recent results include a 2:0 home victory over Buhimba Saints and a 1:0 away win against Lugazi, but these were outweighed by defeats to Police, KCCA, and SC Villa. NEC's five-match run shows three wins and two losses, with seven goals scored and seven conceded. They beat Lugazi 3:1 at home and KCCA 2:0 away, but lost to Calvary and SC Villa.

Head-to-head records favour NEC heavily. In five meetings since February 2024, Mbarara City have won zero times, drawn once, and lost four. The most recent encounter on 24 April 2026 ended 0:0 at NEC's ground, but the pattern is clear. NEC have not lost to Mbarara City since February 2024, and the visitors have scored in every match except that stalemate.

The model projects Mbarara City scoring 0.7 goals and NEC 1.2, with a 30% probability of a draw. The three most likely scorelines are 0:1 at 17%, 0:0 at 14%, and 1:1 at 13%. Both teams to score carries a 36% probability, while three or more goals in the match stand at 31%. These figures align with the market's assessment, which prices an away win at 52% after removing the margin.

A draw would be the main threat to this prediction. NEC have drawn only once in five head-to-head meetings, but they have also lost two of their last five matches, showing vulnerability when matches become tight. If Mbarara City can contain the visitors and exploit the period between 31 and 45 minutes — when they score half their goals — a stalemate is possible. The model gives that scenario a 30% chance, and the market prices it at 3.16, suggesting it is not beyond the realms of possibility.