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Mohammedan SC vs Bhawanipore: match prediction on 11 September 2026

Calcutta Premier Division Kishore Bharati Krirangan Kolkata Miss Match page
Mohammedan SC Bhawanipore

Prediction for

Win: Bhawanipore

47%

probability

Outcome probabilities (1X2)

27% 1
26% X
47% 2

Average bookmaker line (15)

3.30 1
3.44 X
1.93 2

Odds range

1.88 — 1.98

for outcome 2

Prediction fixed and will not change after kick-off

Prediction commentary

Based on data as of 10 Sep, 22:13

Bhawanipore to win at 1.93. The visitors arrive unbeaten in 11 matches with 27 points, four clear of Mohammedan SC's 21. The model expects a tight affair — 1.0 goals for the hosts, 0.9 for the visitors — but the market has made its position plain. Fifteen bookmakers hold the line steady at 1.93, and the market prices the table and the run.

Bhawanipore sit 2nd with 27 points from 11 games, eight wins and three draws. Mohammedan SC are 5th with 21 points, six wins, three draws, two losses. The hosts have dropped points in two of their last five — losses to Peerless and Coal India on the road. That pattern of away defeats matters more than the overall record. Mohammedan SC have won three of their last five away fixtures but also lost two, while Bhawanipore have won three away games in their last five with two draws.

Bhawanipore score heavily in the closing period — 30% of their 20 goals come between the 76th and 90th minutes. Mohammedan SC are more evenly distributed, with 24% in both the 16-30 and 46-60 blocks. The visitors concede most of their five goals in the 61-75 segment (40%), but that total is small enough to carry little weight. What stands out is the contrast in attacking rhythm: Bhawanipore stretch matches in the final quarter, Mohammedan SC spread their output across the middle phases.

Three meetings at this venue in recent years. Mohammedan SC won twice — 2:0 in September 2024 and 2:1 in September 2023. Bhawanipore took the points last time out, 2:1 in August 2025. The home side has won two of three, but the margin has narrowed. The draw probability sits at 32% and the most likely scoreline is 0:0 at 16%. The home record alone does not override the visitors' unbeaten run.

A draw suits the visitors — and given how they run the clock down, that is the main threat. If Mohammedan SC cannot break through in the first hour, Bhawanipore's late surge becomes decisive. The model expects 36% chance of both teams scoring, but the top three scorelines are 0:0, 1:0, and 0:1. A goalless draw would not break the conclusion entirely, but it would weaken the case for a home loss. The prediction stops holding if the hosts find a way to score early and control the tempo, or if Bhawanipore's defensive vulnerability in the 61-75 window is exploited.

Reasoning

Based on data as of 10 Sep, 22:13
  • Средняя линия 15 букмекеров: победа Бхаванипур 1.93, победа Мохаммедан 3.30, ничья 3.44
  • Конторы расходятся в оценке: от 1.88 до 1.98 (5%)
  • Мохаммедан — 5. place, 21 points after 11 games (6 wins, 3 draws, 2 losses)
  • Бхаванипур — 2. place, 27 points after 11 games (8 wins, 3 draws, 0 losses)
  • Мохаммедан, last 5 games: 2 wins, 1 draws, 2 losses
  • Бхаванипур, last 5 games: 3 wins, 2 draws, 0 losses
  • Head-to-head: 3 games, Мохаммедан — 2, Бхаванипур — 1

Key factors

Form last 5 matches

Mohammedan SC WLWLW 3 wins · 2 losses
Bhawanipore WDWWL 3 wins · 1 draw · 1 loss

Head to head 4

3Mohammedan SC 0Draw 1Bhawanipore
All head-to-head

Bookmaker market

15 bookmakers counted
1.93 Average bookmaker line
1.88 — 1.98 Odds range

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Analytical content. Not a call to gamble. 18+