Mosul vs Al Zawra'a: match prediction on 3 September 2026

# Al Zawra'a Avoid Defeat

Al Zawra'a are not expected to lose here. The visitors have won one and drawn one of their two meetings with Mosul, and the model puts a 28% chance on a draw — the highest single outcome alongside a 13% probability for a 0:1 away win. Combined with the visitors' unbeaten league record, that points to a result where Al Zawra'a take at least a point. I see no grounds to expect a home victory. The conclusion stops holding if Al Zawra'a lose their first goal — they have conceded a third of their goals in the final 15 minutes, and an early setback would change the shape of the match completely.

Mosul have collected 10 points from their last five games, winning three and drawing one. They beat Karbala 3:0 at home on 26 August and Diyala 2:1 on 21 August before that heavy 0:2 defeat away to Al Shorta SC on 30 August. The loss to Al Shorta was their only defeat in that run, and they have scored nine goals in the five matches. Their home form is solid — two wins and a draw at this venue. Al Zawra'a have taken eight points from five, winning twice and drawing twice. Four goals against Zakho and four against Naft Maysan in consecutive home games show they can score freely, but they also drew 0:0 at Al Minaa Basra and 1:1 away at Karbala. Their away record is less dominant than their home displays.

The head-to-head tells a simple story. Al Zawra'a won 3:1 at Mosul on 31 October 2025. Mosul have not won either meeting. That pattern fits with the league positions — Al Zawra'a sit second with eight points from four matches without a loss, while Mosul are fourth with seven points after one defeat. The visitors have not dropped points in the league, and the historical record gives them an edge.

Goal timing reveals where each side is most dangerous. Mosul score a third of their goals in the final 15 minutes — 34% of their 38 goals — and another 21% in the 61st to 75th minute. They are weakest between the 46th and 60th minute, where only 5% of their goals fall. Al Zawra'a are different — they score 22% in both the 61st to 75th and 76th to 90th minute blocks, showing consistency across the second half. They also concede heavily late, with 37% of their 30 goals against coming after the 75th minute. That is a vulnerability Mosul could exploit if they stay patient.

The model expects Mosul to score one goal and Al Zawra'a 1.3. A draw at 28% is the most likely single result, followed by a 0:1 away win at 13%. Both teams scoring is expected 46% of the time, and over three goals 40%. The most probable scorelines are 0:1, 1:1, and 0:0 — all results that include Al Zawra'a not losing.. It would break if Al Zawra'a lose their first goal and are forced to chase the game, or if Mosul score early and can control the tempo.