Mushuc Runa vs Leones del Norte: match prediction on 8 September 2026

Mushuc Runa at 1.79, and the reasoning sits in their recent defensive solidity rather than any attacking threat. They have kept three clean sheets in five matches, while Leones del Norte have conceded eight goals in the same period. The market agrees, pricing the home side at 51% probability.

Mushuc Runa's last five results show two wins and three draws, with only four goals scored and none conceded. The pattern is clear: they are difficult to break down, and they take their chances when they appear.

Leones del Norte have scored six and conceded eight in their last five matches. They beat Manta 2:0 away on 15 August, then lost 0:3 at Aucas on 8 August. The away record shows vulnerability, and the goal difference tells its own story.

The head-to-head record offers little comfort to the visitors. In two meetings, Mushuc Runa have not won once, drawing once and losing once. The earlier match on 21 July 2024 was a 0:0 draw in the Copa Ecuador. Both matches finished under 1.5 goals.

The model expects Mushuc Runa to score 1.3 goals and Leones del Norte 0.9. The draw probability sits at 28%, both teams to score at 45%, and three or more goals at 40%. The most likely scorelines are 1:0 at 14%, 1:1 at 13%, and 0:0 at 10%. Mushuc Runa score 26% of their goals in each of the opening and closing fifteen-minute periods, while Leones del Norte concede 29% of their goals in the same windows. A tight match seems most probable.