Napredak vs Loznica: match prediction on 5 October 2026

Napredak to win.

Napredak sit 11th with 14 points after 11 matches, two positions and one point behind Loznica in 9th. The visitors have drawn six of their 11 games, collecting 15 points from 3 wins and 2 defeats. The home side have won 4, lost 5 and shared 2 draws. That narrow gap keeps the result tight, but the model sees a clear favourite.

End-game threat

Napredak score 44% of their goals in the 76–90 minute window, with another 19% arriving between 46 and 60. They have netted 16 goals across 10 matches. Loznica, meanwhile, let in 45% of their goals conceded in the final quarter, having taken 20 against them. The visitors' late vulnerability matches the hosts' late strength.

Loznica's defensive frailty

Loznica have conceded 20 goals in 10 matches while scoring 24. Their top scorer A. Katanich has netted 6 goals, but the side's back line has been exposed. Three players carry 3 yellow cards and risk suspension.

Recent form

Napredak picked up just 4 points from their last 5 matches, winning once, drawing once and losing three times. They scored 4 goals and conceded 8 in that run. Loznica collected 8 points from the same span, with 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat. They scored 8 and conceded 9. The visitors look steadier on paper, but the home advantage tilts things.

What breaks the prediction

A draw suits Loznica's approach of grinding results out. They have drawn 6 of 11 games already this season. If they sit deep and run the clock down, the 23% draw probability becomes the main threat. The conclusion stops holding if Loznica exploit Napredak's weakness in the 16–30 minute period, where the hosts concede 34% of their goals. The model gives 1:0 and 2:0 as the most likely scores at 16% each, with 0:0 at 10%. That points to a narrow home victory unless Loznica turn it around after the break.