Cup
Spišská Nová Ves
Podbrezová
Prediction for Spišská Nová Ves — Podbrezová
96%
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NSI Runavik vs AB: match prediction on 30 August 2026
NSI Runavik
AB
Prediction for
Win: NSI Runavik
70%
probability
Outcome probabilities (1X2) · by our model
70%
1
16%
X
14%
2
Prediction fixed and will not change after kick-off
Reasoning
Based on data as of 28 Aug, 15:07- НСИ Рунавик — 1. place, 41 points after 20 games (12 wins, 5 draws, 3 losses)
- АБ — 6. place, 23 points after 20 games (7 wins, 2 draws, 11 losses)
- НСИ Рунавик, last 5 games: 2 wins, 2 draws, 1 losses
- АБ, last 5 games: 1 wins, 4 losses
- Head-to-head: 2 games, НСИ Рунавик — 1, АБ — 1
Key factors
Form last 5 matches
NSI Runavik
WDWDW
3 wins · 2 draws
AB
LWLLL
1 win · 4 losses
Head to head 6
4NSI Runavik
0Draw
2AB
- 30 MayAB — NSI Runavik3:2
- 21 MarNSI Runavik — AB2:1
- 21 Aug 2022AB — NSI Runavik1:2
- 15 May 2022NSI Runavik — AB1:4
- 18 Apr 2022AB — NSI Runavik2:3
Bookmaker market
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Analytical content. Not a call to gamble. 18+
Prediction commentary
Based on data as of 28 Aug, 15:07NSI Runavik to win. The gap is 18 points, and NSI Runavik have not lost a home league match in 2026. AB sit in the bottom half with 11 defeats in 20 games. The model puts Runavik's expected goals at 2.8 against AB's 1.2, and the last two meetings produced 2:1 and 3:2—both decided by a single goal in favour of the home side.
NSI Runavik's late-game edge
NSI Runavik score 35% of their goals after the 75th minute and concede 55% of theirs in the same window. AB follow a similar pattern, losing 50% of their goals in the final quarter. That late-game vulnerability matters when a team is chasing a result. Runavik have shown they can hold a lead, then extend it, while AB struggle to close out games—four of their last five matches ended in defeat, and only one of those five produced a clean sheet.
AB's recent collapse
AB have taken just three points from their last five matches, losing four of them. Their only win came against Skála ÍF at home, and even then they conceded twice. They lost 3:4 to KÍ Klaksvík on 17 August and 0:2 away to EB/Streymur on 23 August. They can score, but they cannot keep a clean sheet away from home. In their last five matches they conceded 11 goals.
Head-to-head context
NSI Runavik have won four of six meetings between these sides, but the last two were tighter. AB won 3:2 at home in May, and Runavik responded with a 2:1 victory in March. AB can trouble Runavik, but the home advantage matters. Runavik have not lost at home in the league this season, and the model's 2.8 expected goals for them reflects that consistency.
The probable scores point to 2:1 at 9%, followed by 3:1 at 8%. Both involve NSI Runavik winning by a single goal, which aligns with the recent pattern. The 16% draw probability is low, and AB have not drawn any of their last five matches. I back the home win.