Andebol 1
Porto
ABC Braga
Prediction for Porto — ABC Braga
72%
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Oakleigh Cannons vs South Melbourne: match prediction on 11 September 2026
Oakleigh Cannons
South Melbourne
Prediction for
Win: Oakleigh Cannons
62%
probability
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
44%
1
27%
X
30%
2
Average bookmaker line (46)
2.08
1
3.38
X
3.06
2
Odds range
1.92 — 2.16
for outcome 1
Prediction fixed and will not change after kick-off
Reasoning
Based on data as of 9 Sep, 10:30- Оуклиг Каннонс — 1. place, 54 points after 26 games (16 wins, 6 draws, 4 losses)
- Саут Мельбурн — 5. place, 41 points after 26 games (13 wins, 2 draws, 11 losses)
- Оуклиг Каннонс, last 5 games: 2 wins, 1 draws, 2 losses
- Саут Мельбурн, last 5 games: 3 wins, 2 losses
- Head-to-head: 11 games, Оуклиг Каннонс — 7, 1 draws, Саут Мельбурн — 3
Key factors
Form last 5 matches
Oakleigh Cannons
DWWLW
3 wins · 1 draw · 1 loss
South Melbourne
LWLWL
2 wins · 3 losses
Head to head 14
8Oakleigh Cannons
2Draw
4South Melbourne
- 24 JulOakleigh Cannons — South Melbourne1:2
- 19 AprSouth Melbourne — Oakleigh Cannons0:3
- 23 Aug 2025Oakleigh Cannons — South Melbourne3:0
- 11 May 2025South Melbourne — Oakleigh Cannons1:2
- 7 Sep 2024South Melbourne — Oakleigh Cannons0:1
Bookmaker market
46
bookmakers counted
2.08
Average bookmaker line
1.92 — 2.16
Odds range
More predictions
All match predictions
Analytical content. Not a call to gamble. 18+
Prediction commentary
Based on data as of 9 Sep, 10:30Oakleigh Cannons to win at 2.08. The line puts the probability at 44%, my estimate sits at 62% — an 18-point gap where the market has missed something.
The table tells a story the recent results do not
Cannons sit top with 54 points from 26 matches — 16 wins, 6 draws, 4 losses. South Melbourne are fifth on 41 points, 13 wins and 11 defeats. That 13-point margin matters more than the five-match snapshot suggests. South Melbourne have won three of their last five, but two of those came against Melbourne City II and Preston Lions in cup competition.
Why the line moved
The away price dropped from 3.20 to 3.06, the home price rose from 1.99 to 2.08. The drift is not random — it is a correction for historical weakness.
What the model sees
The simulation expects 2 goals for Cannons, 0.9 for South Melbourne. The draw probability sits at 21%, both teams to score at 53%. The three most likely scorelines are 2-0, 1-0, and 2-1. Cannons score 36% of their goals after the 75th minute and concede 32% before the break. South Melbourne concede 23% in the final quarter. If Cannons hold a lead, they know how to kill a game. If they trail, they know how to find a winner.
When this breaks
The prediction stops holding if South Melbourne start from behind and force Cannons to chase. That is the scenario where the visitors' recent attacking form — 8 goals in 5 matches — becomes relevant. It is also the scenario where South Melbourne's suspension risk matters: T. Yannakopoulos and S. Pasquali are one booking away from a ban, A. Menalau picked up a red three weeks ago. If any of those players are suspended, South Melbourne's ability to control tempo disappears. A draw suits them in that case, and given how they run the clock down when behind, that is the main threat.