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Porto
ABC Braga
Prediction for Porto — ABC Braga
72%
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Osogovo vs Novaci: match prediction on 29 August 2026
Osogovo
Novaci
Prediction for
Win: Osogovo
44%
probability
Outcome probabilities (1X2) · by our model
44%
1
28%
X
28%
2
Prediction fixed and will not change after kick-off
Reasoning
Based on data as of 28 Aug, 12:10- Осогово — 11. place, 0 points after 2 games (0 wins, 2 losses)
- Новаки — 12. place, 0 points after 2 games (0 wins, 2 losses)
- Осогово, last 5 games: 0 wins, 2 draws, 3 losses
- Новаки, last 5 games: 3 wins, 2 losses
- Head-to-head: 6 games, Осогово — 3, 2 draws, Новаки — 1
Key factors
Form last 5 matches
Osogovo
LLDLL
1 draw · 4 losses
Novaci
LLDLW
1 win · 1 draw · 3 losses
Head to head 6
3Osogovo
2Draw
1Novaci
- 23 MayNovaci — Osogovo3:3
- 6 Dec 2025Osogovo — Novaci0:0
- 6 May 2025Osogovo — Novaci2:0
- 23 Nov 2024Novaci — Osogovo5:0
- 30 Mar 2024Osogovo — Novaci1:0
Bookmaker market
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Analytical content. Not a call to gamble. 18+
Prediction commentary
Based on data as of 28 Aug, 12:10Osogovo should edge Novaci 1:0 on Saturday. The home side carries a historical advantage—three wins in six meetings—while Novaci's recent form looks stronger only because friendlies are mixed into their last five results. In league play, both sides remain winless after two matches, but Osogovo's home ground provides a slight edge given the expectation of 1.3 goals for the hosts against 1.0 for the visitors.
Form tells a divided story
Osogovo have failed to win any of their last five matches, collecting just two points from two draws and three defeats. Their league outings this season show 1:2 away to Kamjani and 0:1 away to Belasica, with goals scored and conceded at 5:10 across five games. Novaci's last five include three victories, but two of those came in friendlies against Pelister (4:2) and Kozuv Gevgelija (1:0), plus Ohrid (1:0). Their league results this season mirror Osogovo's—0:1 at home to Belasica and 1:2 away to Ohrid—giving them 7:5 across five games with nine points. The friendlies inflate Novaci's apparent momentum.
History favours the home side
In six meetings since September 2023, Osogovo have won three times, drawn twice, and lost once. The most recent encounter ended 3:3 in May 2026 at Novaci's ground, while Osogovo won 2:0 at home in May 2025 and 1:0 in March 2024. Novaci's only victory came 5:0 at home in November 2024. Osogovo perform better when playing at their own stadium, and Saturday's fixture returns to their home turf after the 3:3 draw in May.
The model points to a tight game
The statistical model expects Osogovo to score 1.3 goals and Novaci 1.0, with a 28% probability of a draw and 45% that both teams find the net. The three most likely outcomes are 1:0 (13%), 1:1 (13%), and 0:0 (10%). This suggests a low-scoring affair where a single goal could decide the result. Osogovo's home advantage in the historical record aligns with the slight preference for the hosts.
When the prediction fails
Osogovo win at 65% confidence.