Östersunds FK vs Helsingborgs IF: match prediction on 14 September 2026

Östersunds FK to win or draw (double chance)

The gap between the sides is ten points, and. They are third on 39 points after 23 matches, while Helsingborgs sit tenth on 29. The home side have not lost in their last five league games — two wins and three draws — and they have kept a clean sheet in two of those. That consistency at home is the foundation for the double chance.

. They have scored ten goals and conceded ten in their last five outings, including a 6:3 cup win and a 3:1 defeat away to Oddevold. The goals are there, but so is the vulnerability. They have lost two of their last five and failed to score in one of those defeats. The model expects them to find the net once, but the margin for error is thin.

. The most recent encounter in April 2026 ended 2:1 to Helsingborgs, but before that Östersunds won 1:0 at home in September 2024 and drew 2:2 in August 2025. Three of the last six meetings have been drawn, and the model puts the draw probability at 26%. That is not high, but it is not negligible either.

The model projects 1.5 goals for Östersunds and 1.2 for Helsingborgs. The most likely scoreline is 1:1 at 12%, followed by 1:0 at 10% and 2:1 at 9%. Both teams to score sits at 53%, and three or more goals at 49%. Östersunds score heavily in the final 30 minutes — 29% in the 61-75 period and 29% in the 76-90 — while Helsingborgs concede 30% of their goals in that same window. Late pressure could tip the balance.

The conclusion stops holding if Helsingborgs exploit their own pattern of scoring 36% of goals after the 75th minute while Östersunds fail to do the same. If the visitors match that late intensity and Östersunds drop their concentration — they concede 26% of their goals between the 61st and 75th minute — the double chance collapses. A late goal for Helsingborgs, or a late equaliser that forces extra time, would overturn the prediction.