Pakhtakor vs Andijan: match prediction on 4 September 2026

Pakhtakor to win at 1.68. The line has drifted against Andijan for two days running — a 5.5% drop on the home side, an 8% rise on the visitors — and the model puts Pakhtakor's expected goals at 1.8 to Andijan's 0.8. The market-implied probability for a home victory sits at 54%, and the 13-point gap in the table tells the same story.

The hosts occupy second place after 19 matches, carrying 40 points from 11 wins, 7 draws and a single defeat. Andijan sit seventh with 27 points, their record reading 8 wins, 3 draws and 8 losses. The difference between them is 13 points, a margin that has not closed since the season began.

Pakhtakor's last five matches produced two wins, two draws and one loss, bringing eight points and a goal difference of 6:3. Andijan collected seven points from seven — two wins, one draw, two losses — with only 2 goals scored against 4 conceded. The visitors' most recent outing before this fixture was a 0:0 draw at home, while Pakhtakor's last away result was a 1:1 draw with Dinamo Samarqand.

Seven meetings in recent years

Pakhtakor have won three, Andijan two, with two draws. The most recent encounter ended 0:0 at Andijan on 1 August 2026. Before that, Pakhtakor won 6:2 away in August 2025. The pattern at Pakhtakor's ground has been more decisive — they won 3:1 in October 2024 and 3:1 in June 2024, while Andijan's only home victory came in October 2023 at 1:0.

The model expects 1.8 goals for Pakhtakor and 0.8 for Andijan. A draw is priced at 23%, both teams to score at 46%, and three or more goals at 48%. The three most likely scorelines are 1:0 at 13%, 2:0 at 12%, and 1:1 at 11%. Pakhtakor score a quarter of their goals between the 46th and 60th minute, while Andijan have conceded half of theirs after the 76th minute.