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Prediction for Bulacan Kuyas — San Juan Knights
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Slonim vs Orsha: match prediction on 30 August 2026
Slonim
Orsha
Prediction for
Win: Slonim
49%
probability
Outcome probabilities (1X2) · by our model
49%
1
23%
X
29%
2
Prediction fixed and will not change after kick-off
Reasoning
Based on data as of 28 Aug, 14:01- Слоним — 5. place, 36 points after 21 games (11 wins, 3 draws, 7 losses)
- Орша — 15. place, 22 points after 21 games (6 wins, 4 draws, 11 losses)
- Слоним, last 5 games: 0 wins, 5 losses
- Орша, last 5 games: 1 wins, 1 draws, 3 losses
- Head-to-head: 8 games, Слоним — 5, Орша — 3
Key factors
Form last 5 matches
Slonim
LLLLL
5 losses
Orsha
LDLLW
1 win · 1 draw · 3 losses
Head to head 13
7Slonim
1Draw
5Orsha
- 1 MayOrsha — Slonim0:2
- 19 Sep 2025Slonim — Orsha4:1
- 17 May 2025Orsha — Slonim3:0
- 1 Nov 2024Slonim — Orsha2:0
- 7 Jul 2024Orsha — Slonim2:0
Bookmaker market
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Analytical content. Not a call to gamble. 18+
Prediction commentary
Based on data as of 28 Aug, 14:01Slonim edge Orsha despite recent struggles
Slonim take on Orsha on 30 August knowing their league position offers protection, even if their form has collapsed. A home victory would keep Slonim's top-half ambitions alive and extend their head-to-head advantage over their lower-table opponents.
Slonim's last five matches tell a worrying story. They have lost every game, scoring just three goals while conceding 13. Their attacking output has dried up—V. Papava has not scored since 10 July, and M. Tkatschew's last goal came on 10 August.
Orsha are not faring much better. Their last five yielded one win, one draw, and three losses for four points. They beat Gomel II 2:1 on 6 August but have lost since, including a 1:4 home defeat to Dinamo Minsk II and a 1:2 loss to BATE II. M. Pashkevich remains their main threat with eight goals this season, but the side has conceded 26 times in their last 10 matches.
The head-to-head record belongs to Slonim. They have won five of eight meetings, while Orsha have claimed three victories. The most recent encounter ended 0:2 to Slonim on 1 May 2026 at Orsha's ground. Slonim also won 4:1 at home in September 2025, though Orsha did secure a 3:0 victory in May 2025. Slonim usually win, but form matters more now.
Slonim are expected to score 1.8 goals and Orsha 1.4, with a 23% probability of a draw and a 62% chance both teams find the net. The most likely scorelines are 1:1 at 10%, 2:1 at 9%, and 1:0 at 8%. Both sides are vulnerable late on—Slonim have conceded 33% of their goals between 76 and 90 minutes, while Orsha have scored 28% of theirs in that same period.
Slonim win if they stop conceding late. The prediction breaks down if Orsha exploit Slonim's defensive frailties, particularly after the 75th minute when Slonim have conceded a third of their goals. A draw would suit the visitors given how they have managed to scrape results away from home. The 14-point gap in the table offers Slonim some cushion, but form matters more than position when confidence is this low.