Struga vs Aresimi: match prediction on 21 September 2026

Struga are favourites to win against Aresimi on 2026-09-21. The model gives them a 65% chance of victory based on the gap in expected goals and the six-point difference in the table. Struga sit second with 14 points, while Aresimi languish in seventh with 8. Struga’s xG gap and table position suggest a home victory rather than a tight contest.

Struga’s recent form supports this view. They have taken 10 points from their last five matches, winning three, drawing once, and losing once. Their attack has been prolific, scoring 18 goals in that span, including a 10:1 cup victory over Pobeda Valandovo. Aresimi, by contrast, have managed 8 points from five games, with two wins and two draws. Their attack has been far less potent, netting only 5 goals.

The head-to-head record

Struga dominate the recent history between these sides. They have won three of the last four meetings, including a comprehensive 6:0 victory in a friendly on 08.07.2026. Struga have won three of the last four, leaving Aresimi winless in the fixture since 2024.

The statistical model

The model calculates an expected goal value of 2.1 for Struga and 0.8 for Aresimi. The disparity points to a 2:0 result as the most probable outcome, occurring in 12% of simulations. A 1:0 scoreline follows at 11%, while a draw is projected at 19%. Struga’s goal distribution shows a peak in the 46-60 minute period, where they score 29% of their total. Aresimi, meanwhile, have a higher concentration of goals in the first half, particularly between 31 and 45 minutes.

Aresimi must strike before the hour mark. They score a third of their goals in the 31–45 minute window, but concede 15% late. An early goal breaks the model’s 2:0 projection.