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Torpedo Moscow vs Veles: match prediction on 17 September 2026

First League Arena Khimki Khimki Miss Match page
Torpedo Moscow Veles

Prediction for

Win: Torpedo Moscow

60%

probability

Outcome probabilities (1X2)

53% 1
27% X
19% 2

Average bookmaker line (21)

1.74 1
3.37 X
4.81 2

Odds range

1.51 — 1.78

for outcome 1

Prediction fixed and will not change after kick-off

Prediction commentary

Based on data as of 15 Sep, 16:13

Torpedo Moscow are favourites to beat Veles on Saturday. The hosts have won two of their last three meetings, including a 3:0 Cup victory in October 2025, and the model puts their expected goals at 1.7 against Veles' 0.7. Confidence sits at 65%. This stands only if Torpedo's attacking rhythm holds — they have scored 32% of their goals in the 46-60 minute window and Veles have conceded 38% of theirs after the 75th minute.

Points and momentum

Veles lead by three points at 22 from 11 matches, while Torpedo sit fifth with 19 from 10. The visitors have played one more game, which narrows the gap in practical terms. Torpedo's last five brought three wins, a 4:1 triumph over Tekstilshchik and a 2:0 away win at SKA Khabarovsk, though they lost 1:2 at home to Nizhny Novgorod on 13 September. Veles managed two wins from five — a 2:0 at Arsenal Tula and a 1:0 away at Tekstilshchik — but dropped points against Sochi and Murom, losing 1:2 at home and 0:1 away.

Timing of goals

Torpedo's attack peaks after the restart. They put 32% of their 38 goals in the 46-60 minute period, with another 21% arriving in the final 15 minutes. Veles show a different pattern: 35% of their 17 goals come in the 46-60 minute spell, but they have slipped badly late on, conceding 38% of their 16 goals after the 75th minute. That mismatch between Torpedo's late threat and Veles' defensive fragility in the closing stages shapes the match.

Head-to-head record

Torpedo have dominated this fixture when they meet at home. They won 3:0 in the Cup in October 2025 and 1:0 in the First League in May 2022. Veles' only victory at Torpedo's ground came in December 2020 with a 1:0 scoreline, and they lost 5:0 away in August 2020. The visitors have not won here in seven years, which weighs on how they will approach the game.

What breaks the prediction

A draw suits Veles if they can slow the tempo and absorb pressure. They average 49% possession and have shown they can grind out results — a 1:1 away at Ufa and a 1:0 win at Tekstilshchik demonstrate that approach. The draw probability sits at 24%, and both teams to score at 43% — the most likely scorelines are 1:0, 2:0 and 1:1.

Reasoning

Based on data as of 15 Sep, 16:13
  • Торпедо Москва — 4. place, 19 points after 9 games (6 wins, 1 draws, 2 losses)
  • Велес — 2. place, 22 points after 10 games (7 wins, 1 draws, 2 losses)
  • Торпедо Москва, last 5 games: 4 wins, 1 losses
  • Велес, last 5 games: 3 wins, 1 draws, 1 losses
  • Head-to-head: 1 games, Торпедо Москва — 1, Велес — 0

Key factors

Form last 5 matches

Torpedo Moscow WWLLD 2 wins · 1 draw · 2 losses
Veles WDLLD 1 win · 2 draws · 2 losses

Head to head 5

4Torpedo Moscow 0Draw 1Veles
All head-to-head

Bookmaker market

21 bookmakers counted
1.74 Average bookmaker line
1.51 — 1.78 Odds range

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Analytical content. Not a call to gamble. 18+