UCD vs Finn Harps: match prediction on 28 August 2026

UCD are heavy favourites at 1.20 to beat Finn Harps, and the odds have tightened further since opening at 1.25 on Friday morning. The market prices in a home win at 76% probability when the margin is removed. Finn Harps sit 22 points behind their opponents and have not won a game in five attempts, losing all five and conceding 18 goals in the process.

UCD occupy second place with 44 points from 28 matches, while Finn Harps languish in 10th with just 22 points. The visitors have managed only five victories all season and have lost 16 of their 28 games. They have lost five consecutive matches, including a 0:5 loss away to Bray Wanderers and another 0:5 on the road at Longford Town.

Their last five matches produced one win, two draws and two losses, with five points and a goal difference of 7:6. They beat Wexford 4:1 at home on 7 August and drew 1:1 away to Kerry FC on 21 August.

In 13 meetings over recent years UCD have won seven times, drawn four and lost twice. The most recent encounter on 12 June saw Finn Harps humiliated 0:5 at home. Even when Finn Harps have won, as in a 2:1 result in February, the margin has been narrow. UCD dominate possession and chance creation, with their last 10-match averages showing 56% possession and 3.8 shots on target compared to Finn Harps' 45% and 2.2.

The most probable outcomes are 2:0 at 12%, 3:0 at 10% and 1:0 at 10%. A draw carries only 16% probability and the chance both teams score is 48%.