Uzbekistan Women vs China Women: match prediction on 17 September 2026

Uzbekistan Women host China Women on 17 September 2026; the algorithm prices a stalemate. It sets 1:1 at 11%, xG 1.7 to 1.3. Uzbekistan strike late; China leak in the middle.

Recent form

Uzbekistan come into this match with mixed results. Their last five games produced one win, one draw and three defeats, yielding four goals scored and ten conceded. They lost 0:1 to Thailand and 0:2 to Philippines earlier in the year, and drew 1:1 away to Philippines on 14 September 2026 in the Asian Games.

China's recent record shows two wins and three defeats from five matches, with ten goals scored and six conceded. They opened the Asian Games campaign with a 5:1 victory over Hong Kong at home on 14 September. They also beat Vietnam 3:0 in a friendly on 9 September, but lost three consecutive matches against Russia and Australia in March and June.

Head-to-head

China have won all three previous encounters between these sides. The most recent meeting on 6 March 2026 saw Uzbekistan lose 0:3 at home in the Asian Cup. Before that, China won 5:0 in a friendly on 5 April 2025 and 3:0 on 26 October 2024. Uzbekistan have not beaten China in any of these three matches.

Tournament position

China sit top of the Asian Games table after one match, with three points from one win. Uzbekistan are third after one match, holding one point from a draw. Both teams have played one game in the tournament so far.

Model expectations

The statistical model gives Uzbekistan an expected goals figure of 1.7 and China 1.3. The probability of a draw stands at 24%, with both teams to score at 58%. Three or more goals are expected in 56% of simulated matches. The three most likely scorelines are 1:1 at 11%, 2:1 at 9% and 1:0 at 9%.

Uzbekistan's scoring pattern shows 50% of their goals arrive between the 61st and 75th minutes, with 25% in the opening 15 minutes and 25% in the final 15. China's goals are more evenly spread, with 29% in the 31st-45th minute period and 29% in the 76th-90th minute.

A draw no longer holds if China score early and control the game. They concede 25% of their goals in each of four periods between the 16th and 75th minute, but Uzbekistan have not scored in the 16th-30th or 31st-45th minute windows in their last five matches. If China avoid conceding in the 46th-60th minute, where Uzbekistan have allowed 36% of their goals, the visitors could take all three points.

Conversely, if Uzbekistan exploit their late scoring strength and China fail to score in their own dangerous periods, the home side could edge a narrow victory. xG counts for nothing against a 0-3-5-0-3 run.