Champions League
Montpellier
Skanderborg AGF
Prediction for Montpellier — Skanderborg AGF
54%
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Uzbekistan Women vs Hong Kong Women: match prediction on 21 September 2026
Uzbekistan Women
Hong Kong Women
Prediction for
Win: Uzbekistan Women
44%
probability
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
77%
1
15%
X
8%
2
Average bookmaker line (36)
1.17
1
6.05
X
11.87
2
Odds range
1.12 — 1.32
for outcome 1
Prediction fixed and will not change after kick-off
Reasoning
Based on data as of 19 Sep, 08:04- Узбекистан (жен.) — 3. place, 2 points after 2 games (0 wins, 2 draws, 0 losses)
- Гонконг (жен.) — 4. place, 0 points after 2 games (0 wins, 2 losses)
- Узбекистан (жен.), last 5 games: 1 wins, 2 draws, 2 losses
- Гонконг (жен.), last 5 games: 2 wins, 3 losses
Key factors
Form last 5 matches
Uzbekistan Women
LDDWL
1 win · 2 draws · 2 losses
Hong Kong Women
WWLLL
2 wins · 3 losses
Bookmaker market
36
bookmakers counted
1.17
Average bookmaker line
1.12 — 1.32
Odds range
More predictions
All match predictions
Analytical content. Not a call to gamble. 18+
Prediction commentary
Based on data as of 19 Sep, 08:04Uzbekistan Women are strong favourites to beat Hong Kong Women at 1.17, a price that has shortened from 1.29 since the line opened. The market has moved decisively, with Hong Kong's odds drifting from 7.62 to 11.79 and the draw rising from 4.83 to 6.03. This is not a contest the visitors can win — they have lost both opening matches in the Asian Games and face immediate elimination. The conclusion stops holding only if Hong Kong score first and manage to keep the result, which would force Uzbekistan to open up and risk a counter-attack.
Elimination pressure on the visitors
Hong Kong sit fourth with zero points from two matches, having lost 0:2 at home to Philippines and 1:5 away to China. A defeat here confirms their exit from the tournament. Uzbekistan occupy third place with two points from two draws, and they need a win to keep their advancement hopes alive. Hong Kong must win. Uzbekistan need a point.
Uzbekistan have scored just three goals in five games, drawing twice and losing twice. They drew 1:1 with China at home and 1:1 with Philippines away in the Asian Games, before losing 0:1 to Thailand and 0:2 to Philippines, and winning 1:0 against Myanmar. Hong Kong have been more volatile — 2 wins against Fiji in friendlies, but losses to Philippines, China and Ghana in competitive and friendly fixtures. Their defensive frailty is evident: 14 goals conceded in 5 matches compared to Uzbekistan's 5.
The 36 bookmakers offering odds all cluster around the same prices, with no significant divergence that would suggest uncertainty.
The model expects Uzbekistan to score 1.7 goals and Hong Kong 1.5, with a 23% chance of a draw and 63% that both teams score. The most likely scorelines are 1:1 at 10%, 2:1 at 9% and 1:2 at 8%. Uzbekistan tend to be most dangerous in the 61st to 75th minute, where they score 40% of their goals, while Hong Kong have conceded 33% of their goals in the 46th to 60th minute. If Uzbekistan can break through early, the match could open up — but if Hong Kong find a way to survive the opening half, they might still have a chance to hold on.