Eyüpspor vs Alanyaspor: match prediction on 30 August 2026

Alanyaspor to win at 2.25. The visitors carry an unbeaten start—four points from two matches—while Eyüpspor sit bottom with none, and the model gives both sides identical expected goals at 1.2, which points to a narrow margin rather than a rout.

Eyüpspor have lost both opening games, most recently 0:1 at home against Gazişehir Gaziantep on 23 August after a 1:0 defeat away to Besiktas the week before. The side concedes a third of its goals in the final fifteen minutes, yet the red card issued to David Costa on 16 August complicates the back line further. In the last five fixtures they have taken seven points—two wins, one draw, two losses—but three of those came before the league proper began, leaving the current run as a concern.

Alanyaspor have done the opposite, winning at home to Besiktas 1:0 on 23 August and drawing away to Gazişehir Gaziantep 1:1 on 15 August. They sit sixth with four points, an unbeaten record that includes a 3:0 victory over Eyüpspor in January and a 2:1 win at this venue last August. The visitors score heavily in the 31–45 and 76–90 periods, and their defensive record shows they concede most often in the 46–60 segment, which could matter if Eyüpspor find a way into the game early.

Yet the current league positions invert the historical balance, and the line—set by 47 bookmakers—prices an away victory at 2.25 against 3.14 for the hosts, with a draw at 3.23. The model calculates a 28% chance of a stalemate and 47% for both teams to score, with 1:1 the most probable outcome at 13%.

This conclusion stops holding if Eyüpspor's recent scoring pattern—where they have netted 27% of their goals in the closing fifteen minutes—materialises against an Alanyaspor side that concedes 22% of its own goals in the same period.