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South Africa Australia 20/2 0 Nagaland Mizoram 0 417/9 Meghalaya Manipur 380 0 Assam Tripura 323/7 0 Puducherry Madhya Pradesh 177 51/3 Baroda Bihar 99/3 166 Matches →

Football predictions: upcoming matches

A suggested outcome with a probability and the reasoning behind it. The calculation rests on attacking and defensive strength adjusted for opponents, recent form, head-to-head history and, where available, the bookmakers' line. A forecast is an estimate, not a promise.

Analytical forecasts on sports events based on statistical models

Prediction accuracy

59%

9212 / 15559

9212hit
6347missed
1142Pending
15559checked predictions

Awaiting result

Bundesliga Pending
Bayer Leverkusen SC Freiburg

Prediction for Bayer Leverkusen — SC Freiburg

Win: Bayer Leverkusen

50%probability
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Premier League Pending
Dinamo Moscow CSKA Moscow

Prediction for Dinamo Moscow — CSKA Moscow

Win: Dinamo Moscow

55%probability
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Premier League Pending
Leeds Manchester United

Prediction for Leeds — Manchester United

Slight edge: Leeds

44%probability
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Premier League Pending
Brighton Crystal Palace

Prediction for Brighton — Crystal Palace

Win: Brighton

62%probability
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Premier League Pending
Bournemouth Sunderland

Prediction for Bournemouth — Sunderland

Win: Bournemouth

65%probability
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La Liga Pending
Osasuna Racing Santander

Prediction for Osasuna — Racing Santander

Win: Osasuna

72%probability
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Premier League Pending
Zenit Saint Petersburg Akhmat Grozny

Prediction for Zenit Saint Petersburg — Akhmat Grozny

Win: Zenit Saint Petersburg

67%probability
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Analytical content. Not a call to gamble. 18+

How a forecast is made

First the attacking and defensive strength of each side is worked out from matches played, adjusted for the opposition faced: goals against a bottom club and against a leader are not worth the same. Expected goals follow from those figures, and the outcome probabilities from them.

What data goes in

Match results from the past two years, weighted so that a recent game counts for more than one from last season. League position, head-to-head history and, in football, the average bookmakers' line. Injuries and suspensions are gathered separately and appear in the write-up.

What the probability means

Sixty per cent means that, were the match played many times over, the outcome would come up in roughly six cases out of ten. In four it would not — and that is not an error in the calculation but the nature of an estimate.

Limits of a forecast

The calculation knows nothing that is not in the data: a coach dismissed on the eve, the weather, a side rested before a European tie. For clubs with two or three matches behind them there is not enough to go on at all, and no forecast is made.