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Football predictions: upcoming matches

A suggested outcome with a probability and the reasoning behind it. The calculation rests on attacking and defensive strength adjusted for opponents, recent form, head-to-head history and, where available, the bookmakers' line. A forecast is an estimate, not a promise.

Analytical forecasts on sports events based on statistical models

Prediction accuracy

59%

9212 / 15559

9212hit
6347missed
1171Pending
15559checked predictions

Awaiting result

La Liga Pending
Deportivo La Coruña Levante

Prediction for Deportivo La Coruña — Levante

Win: Levante

70%probability
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Serie A Pending
Frosinone Sassuolo

Prediction for Frosinone — Sassuolo

Win: Sassuolo

71%probability
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Ligue 1 Pending
Le Mans Toulouse

Prediction for Le Mans — Toulouse

Win: Toulouse

72%probability
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Major League Soccer Pending
Los Angeles FC Austin

Prediction for Los Angeles FC — Austin

Win: Los Angeles FC

52%probability
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Major League Soccer Pending
San Diego Houston Dynamo

Prediction for San Diego — Houston Dynamo

Slight edge: San Diego

46%probability
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Major League Soccer Pending
Nashville SC Sporting Kansas City

Prediction for Nashville SC — Sporting Kansas City

Win: Nashville SC

68%probability
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Major League Soccer Pending
Chicago Fire Philadelphia Union

Prediction for Chicago Fire — Philadelphia Union

Slight edge: Chicago Fire

45%probability
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Major League Soccer Pending
FC Dallas Seattle Sounders

Prediction for FC Dallas — Seattle Sounders

Win: FC Dallas

52%probability
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Major League Soccer Pending
Inter Miami New York City FC

Prediction for Inter Miami — New York City FC

Win: Inter Miami

50%probability
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Major League Soccer Pending
DC United New York Red Bulls

Prediction for DC United — New York Red Bulls

Slight edge: DC United

42%probability
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Serie A Pending
Atalanta Venezia

Prediction for Atalanta — Venezia

Win: Atalanta

72%probability
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Checked forecasts

Premier League Miss
Coventry Newcastle United

Prediction for Coventry — Newcastle United

Win: Newcastle United

70%probability
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Analytical content. Not a call to gamble. 18+

How a forecast is made

First the attacking and defensive strength of each side is worked out from matches played, adjusted for the opposition faced: goals against a bottom club and against a leader are not worth the same. Expected goals follow from those figures, and the outcome probabilities from them.

What data goes in

Match results from the past two years, weighted so that a recent game counts for more than one from last season. League position, head-to-head history and, in football, the average bookmakers' line. Injuries and suspensions are gathered separately and appear in the write-up.

What the probability means

Sixty per cent means that, were the match played many times over, the outcome would come up in roughly six cases out of ten. In four it would not — and that is not an error in the calculation but the nature of an estimate.

Limits of a forecast

The calculation knows nothing that is not in the data: a coach dismissed on the eve, the weather, a side rested before a European tie. For clubs with two or three matches behind them there is not enough to go on at all, and no forecast is made.