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Football predictions: upcoming matches
A suggested outcome with a probability and the reasoning behind it. The calculation rests on attacking and defensive strength adjusted for opponents, recent form, head-to-head history and, where available, the bookmakers' line. A forecast is an estimate, not a promise.
Analytical forecasts on sports events based on statistical models
Prediction accuracy
59%
9218 / 15565
9218 hit
6347 missed
1314 Pending
15565 checked predictions
Awaiting result
Ligue A
Pending
Bumamuru
VS
Flambeau du Centre
4 Oct, 14:00
Prediction for Bumamuru — Flambeau du Centre
Slight edge: Flambeau du Centre
39% probability
1 30% X 31% 2 39%
Read more →
Women's Championship
Pending
Nottingham Forest Women
VS
Burnley Women
4 Oct, 14:00
Prediction for Nottingham Forest Women — Burnley Women
Slight edge: Burnley Women
39% probability
1 33% X 28% 2 39%
Read more →
Women's Championship
Pending
Wolverhampton Women
VS
Watford Women
4 Oct, 14:00
Prediction for Wolverhampton Women — Watford Women
Win: Wolverhampton Women
55% probability
1 55% X 23% 2 22%
Read more →
Women's Championship
Pending
Sunderland Women
VS
Leicester City Women
4 Oct, 14:00
Prediction for Sunderland Women — Leicester City Women
Win: Sunderland Women
64% probability
1 64% X 22% 2 14%
Read more →
Damallsvenskan
Pending
Häcken
VS
Uppsala Women
4 Oct, 14:00
Prediction for Häcken — Uppsala Women
Win: Häcken
72% probability
1 72% X 21% 2 7%
Read more →
Damallsvenskan
Pending
Malmö FF Women
VS
Rosengård Women
4 Oct, 14:00
Prediction for Malmö FF Women — Rosengård Women
Win: Malmö FF Women
60% probability
1 60% X 26% 2 14%
Read more →
Damallsvenskan
Pending
Hammarby
VS
Brommapojkarna Women
4 Oct, 14:00
Prediction for Hammarby — Brommapojkarna Women
Win: Hammarby
69% probability
1 69% X 23% 2 8%
Read more →
Kansallinen Liiga
Pending
JyPK
VS
Hjs Akatemia Women
4 Oct, 14:00
Prediction for JyPK — Hjs Akatemia Women
Win: Hjs Akatemia Women
64% probability
1 20% X 16% 2 64%
Read more →
UEFA Nations League
Pending
Azerbaijan
VS
Lithuania
4 Oct, 14:00
Prediction for Azerbaijan — Lithuania
Slight edge: Lithuania
49% probability
1 20% X 31% 2 49%
Read more →
FA WSL
Pending
Brighton Women
VS
Charlton Athletic Women
4 Oct, 14:00
Prediction for Brighton Women — Charlton Athletic Women
Win: Brighton Women
71% probability
1 71% X 23% 2 6%
Read more →
FA WSL
Pending
Everton Women
VS
Birmingham City Women
4 Oct, 14:00
Prediction for Everton Women — Birmingham City Women
Win: Everton Women
69% probability
1 69% X 22% 2 9%
Read more →
FA WSL
Pending
West Ham United Women
VS
Chelsea Women
4 Oct, 14:00
Prediction for West Ham United Women — Chelsea Women
Win: Chelsea Women
57% probability
1 18% X 25% 2 57%
Read more →
FA WSL
Pending
Aston Villa Women
VS
Crystal Palace Women
4 Oct, 14:00
Prediction for Aston Villa Women — Crystal Palace Women
Win: Aston Villa Women
70% probability
1 70% X 20% 2 10%
Read more →
FA WSL
Pending
Tottenham Hotspur Women
VS
London City Lionesses
4 Oct, 14:00
Prediction for Tottenham Hotspur Women — London City Lionesses
Win: Tottenham Hotspur Women
51% probability
1 51% X 26% 2 23%
Read more →
Serie A Women
Pending
AC Milan Women
VS
Juventus Women
4 Oct, 14:00
Prediction for AC Milan Women — Juventus Women
Win: Juventus Women
68% probability
1 11% X 21% 2 68%
Read more →
Women's Championship
Pending
Sheffield United Women
VS
Ipswich Town Women
4 Oct, 14:00
Prediction for Sheffield United Women — Ipswich Town Women
Slight edge: Ipswich Town Women
45% probability
1 28% X 27% 2 45%
Read more →
Women's Championship
Pending
Bristol City Women
VS
Southampton Women
4 Oct, 14:00
Prediction for Bristol City Women — Southampton Women
Slight edge: Bristol City Women
42% probability
1 42% X 28% 2 30%
Read more →
First Division
Pending
Bryne
VS
Lyn
4 Oct, 13:30
Prediction for Bryne — Lyn
Win: Bryne
54% probability
1 54% X 25% 2 21%
Read more →
Damallsvenskan
Pending
Djurgården
VS
AIK
4 Oct, 13:00
Prediction for Djurgården — AIK
Slight edge: Djurgården
41% probability
1 41% X 29% 2 30%
Read more →
2nd Division - Group 1
Pending
Thisted
VS
Roskilde
4 Oct, 13:00
Prediction for Thisted — Roskilde
Slight edge: Roskilde
47% probability
1 26% X 27% 2 47%
Read more →
Pershaya Liga
Pending
Bumprom
VS
Minsk II
4 Oct, 13:00
Prediction for Bumprom — Minsk II
Win: Bumprom
61% probability
1 61% X 21% 2 18%
Read more →
Frauenliga
Pending
St. Pölten Women
VS
Sturm Graz Women
4 Oct, 13:00
Prediction for St. Pölten Women — Sturm Graz Women
Win: St. Pölten Women
68% probability
1 68% X 21% 2 11%
Read more →
Kvindeliga
Pending
Nordsjælland
VS
Køge BK
4 Oct, 13:00
Prediction for Nordsjælland — Køge BK
Slight edge: Køge BK
40% probability
1 35% X 25% 2 40%
Read more →
1. divisjon Kvinner
Pending
Kolbotn Women
VS
Klepp Women
4 Oct, 13:00
Prediction for Kolbotn Women — Klepp Women
Win: Kolbotn Women
70% probability
1 70% X 21% 2 9%
Read more →
Analytical content. Not a call to gamble. 18+
Model statistics
59%
accuracy
9218 hit
6347 missed
1314 Pending
Model calibration
50–59%
55%
2904 / 5199
60–69%
69%
2389 / 3441
70–79%
73%
1728 / 2348
80%+
69%
610 / 875
How forecasts are made
We analyse team form, match statistics, head-to-head record and line-ups.
The model estimates the probability of each outcome (1X2).
A forecast is fixed before kick-off and is never changed afterwards.
Accuracy counts only finished events.
How a forecast is made
First the attacking and defensive strength of each side is worked out from matches played, adjusted for the opposition faced: goals against a bottom club and against a leader are not worth the same. Expected goals follow from those figures, and the outcome probabilities from them.
What data goes in
Match results from the past two years, weighted so that a recent game counts for more than one from last season. League position, head-to-head history and, in football, the average bookmakers' line. Injuries and suspensions are gathered separately and appear in the write-up.
What the probability means
Sixty per cent means that, were the match played many times over, the outcome would come up in roughly six cases out of ten. In four it would not — and that is not an error in the calculation but the nature of an estimate.
Limits of a forecast
The calculation knows nothing that is not in the data: a coach dismissed on the eve, the weather, a side rested before a European tie. For clubs with two or three matches behind them there is not enough to go on at all, and no forecast is made.