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Football predictions: upcoming matches

A suggested outcome with a probability and the reasoning behind it. The calculation rests on attacking and defensive strength adjusted for opponents, recent form, head-to-head history and, where available, the bookmakers' line. A forecast is an estimate, not a promise.

Analytical forecasts on sports events based on statistical models

Prediction accuracy

59%

9217 / 15564

9217hit
6347missed
1315Pending
15564checked predictions

Awaiting result

Liga de Ascenso Pending
Aserri FC Guadalupe FC

Prediction for Aserri FC — Guadalupe FC

Win: Guadalupe FC

68%probability
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Frauen Bundesliga Pending
Nürnberg 1899 Hoffenheim Women

Prediction for Nürnberg — 1899 Hoffenheim Women

Win: 1899 Hoffenheim Women

64%probability
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Serie A Women Pending
Como Women Inter Milan Women

Prediction for Como Women — Inter Milan Women

Win: Inter Milan Women

64%probability
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UEFA Nations League Pending
Malta Andorra

Prediction for Malta — Andorra

Win: Malta

54%probability
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UEFA Nations League Pending
Kosovo National Team Austria

Prediction for Kosovo National Team — Austria

Slight edge: Austria

45%probability
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Prva Liga Pending
Jedinstvo Ub Dubočica

Prediction for Jedinstvo Ub — Dubočica

Win: Jedinstvo Ub

59%probability
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Azadegan League Pending
Naft Masjed Soleyman Fard Alborz

Prediction for Naft Masjed Soleyman — Fard Alborz

Draw

40%probability
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Primera B Pending
Antofagasta Rangers de Talca

Prediction for Antofagasta — Rangers de Talca

Win: Antofagasta

68%probability
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Kansallinen Liiga Pending
HJK HPS Women

Prediction for HJK — HPS Women

Win: HJK

68%probability
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First Division League Pending
KAC Soccer Mighty Royals

Prediction for KAC Soccer — Mighty Royals

Slight edge: KAC Soccer

46%probability
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Premier League Pending
Hearts U21 Ashanti Gold

Prediction for Hearts U21 — Ashanti Gold

Win: Hearts U21

72%probability
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Championnat National Pending
Coton Sport Ouidah Bani Gansè

Prediction for Coton Sport Ouidah — Bani Gansè

Win: Coton Sport Ouidah

50%probability
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Championnat National Pending
Cavaliers Dynamo Abomey

Prediction for Cavaliers — Dynamo Abomey

Slight edge: Cavaliers

39%probability
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NPFL Pending
Doma United Warri Wolves

Prediction for Doma United — Warri Wolves

Win: Doma United

67%probability
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Premier League Pending
Port City Bechem United

Prediction for Port City — Bechem United

Win: Bechem United

61%probability
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First Division League Pending
King Faisal Ebusua Dwarfs

Prediction for King Faisal — Ebusua Dwarfs

Slight edge: King Faisal

42%probability
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Analytical content. Not a call to gamble. 18+

How a forecast is made

First the attacking and defensive strength of each side is worked out from matches played, adjusted for the opposition faced: goals against a bottom club and against a leader are not worth the same. Expected goals follow from those figures, and the outcome probabilities from them.

What data goes in

Match results from the past two years, weighted so that a recent game counts for more than one from last season. League position, head-to-head history and, in football, the average bookmakers' line. Injuries and suspensions are gathered separately and appear in the write-up.

What the probability means

Sixty per cent means that, were the match played many times over, the outcome would come up in roughly six cases out of ten. In four it would not — and that is not an error in the calculation but the nature of an estimate.

Limits of a forecast

The calculation knows nothing that is not in the data: a coach dismissed on the eve, the weather, a side rested before a European tie. For clubs with two or three matches behind them there is not enough to go on at all, and no forecast is made.