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Football predictions: upcoming matches

A suggested outcome with a probability and the reasoning behind it. The calculation rests on attacking and defensive strength adjusted for opponents, recent form, head-to-head history and, where available, the bookmakers' line. A forecast is an estimate, not a promise.

Analytical forecasts on sports events based on statistical models

Prediction accuracy

59%

9214 / 15561

9214hit
6347missed
1316Pending
15561checked predictions

Awaiting result

Liga Premier Serie A Pending
Real Apodaca Vaqueros Reynosa

Prediction for Real Apodaca — Vaqueros Reynosa

Win: Real Apodaca

57%probability
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CONCACAF Nations League Pending
Trinidad and Tobago Curaçao

Prediction for Trinidad and Tobago — Curaçao

Win: Trinidad and Tobago

70%probability
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CONCACAF Nations League Pending
Puerto Rico Cayman Islands

Prediction for Puerto Rico — Cayman Islands

Win: Puerto Rico

55%probability
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Copa de la División Profesional Pending
Guabirá Oriente Petrolero

Prediction for Guabirá — Oriente Petrolero

Win: Guabirá

50%probability
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Primera Nacional Pending
Godoy Cruz Los Andes

Prediction for Godoy Cruz — Los Andes

Win: Godoy Cruz

67%probability
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Liga Panameña de Fútbol Pending
Herrera Alianza FC

Prediction for Herrera — Alianza FC

Win: Alianza FC

66%probability
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Primera B Pending
Tigres FC Internacional Palmira

Prediction for Tigres FC — Internacional Palmira

Draw

39%probability
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Torneo Federal A Pending
Gimnasia Chivilcoy Olimpo de Bahía Blanca

Prediction for Gimnasia Chivilcoy — Olimpo de Bahía Blanca

Draw

45%probability
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Canadian Premier League Pending
Supra Du Quebec Pacific FC

Prediction for Supra Du Quebec — Pacific FC

Win: Supra Du Quebec

59%probability
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Primera Nacional Pending
Chaco For Ever Defensores De Belgrano

Prediction for Chaco For Ever — Defensores De Belgrano

Slight edge: Chaco For Ever

46%probability
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NWSL Women Pending
Chicago Red Stars Women Denver Summit Women

Prediction for Chicago Red Stars Women — Denver Summit Women

Win: Denver Summit Women

66%probability
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Liga Profesional Argentina Pending
Talleres Córdoba Belgrano Cordoba

Prediction for Talleres Córdoba — Belgrano Cordoba

Slight edge: Talleres Córdoba

39%probability Odds2.53
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CONCACAF Nations League Pending
Bahamas US Virgin Islands

Prediction for Bahamas — US Virgin Islands

Win: US Virgin Islands

61%probability
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Primera Nacional Pending
Central Norte Racing de Córdoba

Prediction for Central Norte — Racing de Córdoba

Slight edge: Central Norte

46%probability
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CONCACAF Nations League Pending
Guyana Dominica

Prediction for Guyana — Dominica

Win: Guyana

69%probability
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Primera División - Apertura Pending
Cerro Wanderers

Prediction for Cerro — Wanderers

Slight edge: Cerro

40%probability
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Analytical content. Not a call to gamble. 18+

How a forecast is made

First the attacking and defensive strength of each side is worked out from matches played, adjusted for the opposition faced: goals against a bottom club and against a leader are not worth the same. Expected goals follow from those figures, and the outcome probabilities from them.

What data goes in

Match results from the past two years, weighted so that a recent game counts for more than one from last season. League position, head-to-head history and, in football, the average bookmakers' line. Injuries and suspensions are gathered separately and appear in the write-up.

What the probability means

Sixty per cent means that, were the match played many times over, the outcome would come up in roughly six cases out of ten. In four it would not — and that is not an error in the calculation but the nature of an estimate.

Limits of a forecast

The calculation knows nothing that is not in the data: a coach dismissed on the eve, the weather, a side rested before a European tie. For clubs with two or three matches behind them there is not enough to go on at all, and no forecast is made.