Azadegan League
Pending
Mes Rafsanjan
Ario Eslamshahr
Prediction for Mes Rafsanjan — Ario Eslamshahr
69%probability
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Football predictions: upcoming matches
A suggested outcome with a probability and the reasoning behind it. The calculation rests on attacking and defensive strength adjusted for opponents, recent form, head-to-head history and, where available, the bookmakers' line. A forecast is an estimate, not a promise.
Analytical forecasts on sports events based on statistical models
Prediction accuracy
59%
9212 / 15559
9212hit
6347missed
1313Pending
15559checked predictions
Awaiting result
Mes Rafsanjan
Ario Eslamshahr
FIFA Asean Cup
Pending
Indonesia
Thailand
Prediction for Indonesia — Thailand
47%probability
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Professional Development League
Pending
Sheffield United U21
Bolton Wanderers Res.
Prediction for Sheffield United U21 — Bolton Wanderers Res.
Slight edge: Bolton Wanderers Res.
40%probability
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Prva Liga
Pending
Semendrija 1924
FK Vozdovac
Prediction for Semendrija 1924 — FK Vozdovac
40%probability
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Azadegan League
Pending
Be'sat Kermanshah
Naft Bandar Abbas
Prediction for Be'sat Kermanshah — Naft Bandar Abbas
43%probability
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Azadegan League
Pending
Niroye Zamini
Mes Kerman
Prediction for Niroye Zamini — Mes Kerman
43%probability
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Premier League
Pending
Ulaanbaatar
Ulaangom City
Prediction for Ulaanbaatar — Ulaangom City
71%probability
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CONCACAF Nations League
Pending
Nicaragua
Dominican Republic
Prediction for Nicaragua — Dominican Republic
52%probability
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Liga MX Femenil
Pending
Pachuca Women
Toluca Women
Prediction for Pachuca Women — Toluca Women
62%probability
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Primera Premier
Pending
Celaya
Jaguares de Chiapas
Prediction for Celaya — Jaguares de Chiapas
69%probability
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Liga Nacional
Pending
Comunicaciones
Suchitepéquez
Prediction for Comunicaciones — Suchitepéquez
69%probability
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Primera Division
Pending
FAS
Inca Aruba
Prediction for FAS — Inca Aruba
67%probability
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Liga Profesional Argentina
Pending
Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto
Racing Club
Prediction for Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto — Racing Club
47%probability
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CONCACAF Nations League
Pending
Costa Rica
Haiti
Prediction for Costa Rica — Haiti
41%probability
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Copa de la División Profesional
Pending
Independiente Petrolero
Bolívar
Prediction for Independiente Petrolero — Bolívar
68%probability
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Primera A
Pending
Bucaramanga
Junior
Prediction for Bucaramanga — Junior
51%probability
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Primera Division
Pending
Inter
Fuerte San Francisco
Prediction for Inter — Fuerte San Francisco
59%probability
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Liga Premier Serie A
Pending
FC Santiago
Guerreros
Prediction for FC Santiago — Guerreros
69%probability
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Liga Nacional
Pending
Guastatoya
Aurora
Prediction for Guastatoya — Aurora
68%probability
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Liga MX Femenil
Pending
Guadalajara Women
Juárez Women
Prediction for Guadalajara Women — Juárez Women
Slight edge: Guadalajara Women
45%probability
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NWSL Women
Pending
Houston Dash
Washington Spirit Women
Prediction for Houston Dash — Washington Spirit Women
Slight edge: Washington Spirit Women
41%probability
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CONCACAF Nations League
Pending
Aruba
Anguilla
Prediction for Aruba — Anguilla
69%probability
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Primera División - Apertura
Pending
Racing Club de Montevideo
Peñarol Montevideo
Prediction for Racing Club de Montevideo — Peñarol Montevideo
Slight edge: Peñarol Montevideo
42%probability
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Liga Profesional Argentina
Pending
Argentinos Juniors
Tigre
Prediction for Argentinos Juniors — Tigre
53%probability
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Analytical content. Not a call to gamble. 18+
How a forecast is made
First the attacking and defensive strength of each side is worked out from matches played, adjusted for the opposition faced: goals against a bottom club and against a leader are not worth the same. Expected goals follow from those figures, and the outcome probabilities from them.
What data goes in
Match results from the past two years, weighted so that a recent game counts for more than one from last season. League position, head-to-head history and, in football, the average bookmakers' line. Injuries and suspensions are gathered separately and appear in the write-up.
What the probability means
Sixty per cent means that, were the match played many times over, the outcome would come up in roughly six cases out of ten. In four it would not — and that is not an error in the calculation but the nature of an estimate.
Limits of a forecast
The calculation knows nothing that is not in the data: a coach dismissed on the eve, the weather, a side rested before a European tie. For clubs with two or three matches behind them there is not enough to go on at all, and no forecast is made.