Mes Rafsanjan vs Ario Eslamshahr: match prediction on 5 October 2026

Mes Rafsanjan to win. The model expects the hosts to score 1.4 goals while allowing Ario Eslamshahr just 0.3, and that gap between expected output and defensive solidity is where the value sits. The confidence is 69%.

Mes Rafsanjan have not lost yet. After three matches they sit on five points with one win and two draws, including a 1:0 home victory over Be'sat Kermanshah on 29 September. Their recent form shows two defeats in their last five—0:3 to Sanat Naft and 0:1 to Esteghlal FC—but those came in the Persian Gulf Pro League when they were still in the top flight. Since dropping down, they have kept three clean sheets across their last five outings.

Ario Eslamshahr occupy second place with six points from two wins and a loss. Their record reads 2:0 against Havadar at home on 28 September, 1:0 away at Naft Gachsaran on 22 September, and a 0:3 home defeat to Naft Masjed Soleyman on 16 September. They have scored 13 goals across their last ten matches and conceded six, but their distribution is uneven. They score 31% of their goals in the opening 15 minutes and another 31% in the final 15, while 50% of their goals against come after the 76th minute.

The model's scoreline predictions point towards a tight affair. A 1:0 result carries 26% probability, followed by 0:0 at 19% and 2:0 also at 19%. The draw is priced at 27% and both teams to score at 18%. These figures suggest a low-scoring contest where the home side's slight edge in expected goals matters. Ario's tendency to concede late could work against them if the match stays goalless through the first hour.

A first-half goal for the visitors would flip the script entirely, turning a potential home win into a different kind of match.

Mes Rafsanjan win (69%)

Mes Rafsanjan have not lost yet this season. Three matches, five points, one win and two draws. Their most recent result was a 1:0 home victory over Be'sat Kermanshah on 29 September, and before that two consecutive 0:0 draws away at Mes Soongoun and at home against Havadar. The two defeats in their last five—0:3 to Sanat Naft and 0:1 to Esteghlal FC—came in the Persian Gulf Pro League. Since the drop, they have kept three clean sheets.

Ario Eslamshahr sit second with six points from two wins and one loss. They beat Havadar 2:0 at home on 28 September and Naft Gachsaran 1:0 away on 22 September. Their only defeat came 0:3 at home to Naft Masjed Soleyman on 16 September. Across ten matches they have scored 13 goals and conceded six, with a clear pattern in when those goals arrive.

They concede 50% of their goals after the 76th minute. The model expects Mes Rafsanjan to score 1.4 goals and Ario Eslamshahr 0.3. A 1:0 result is the most likely outcome at 26%, with 0:0 and 2:0 both at 19%. The draw probability sits at 27% and both teams to score at 18%.

The model's figures assume a balanced contest, but a quick goal changes everything.