Niroye Zamini vs Mes Kerman: match prediction on 5 October 2026

I see a draw as the most likely outcome here. The model puts the probability at 42%, and the service pick comes in at 43% confidence for a stalemate between Niroye Zamini and Mes Kerman.

Both sides have barely scratched the surface of the season. Niroye Zamini sit 11th with 3 points from 3 matches — one win, two defeats. Mes Kerman are 13th on 2 points, having drawn twice and lost once. Neither side has found a rhythm yet, and the table tells you that much without needing to look further. After just three games, these are not sides that have built momentum or settled into a pattern.

The head-to-head record is stark. Four meetings in recent years. One win for Niroye Zamini, three draws, zero wins for Mes Kerman. Three of those four matches ended 0:0. The last encounter on 27 January 2026 was another goalless draw at Niroye Zamini's ground. This is not a pairing that produces fireworks. It produces tight, cautious affairs where neither side wants to be the first to commit.

Looking at the model's expected goals, both sides are pegged at 0.7. That is not a figure that suggests goals will flow. The most likely scoreline is 0:0 at 27%, followed by 1:0 for either side at 17% and 15% respectively. Both teams to score sits at just 26%. The data points towards a match decided by a single moment, if at all.

There is something worth noting in how these teams score and concede. Niroye Zamini have put 50% of their six goals into the 31-45 minute window, but they also concede 36% of their 14 goals in that same period. Mes Kerman have distributed their seven goals more evenly across the second half, with 43% in both the 46-60 and 76-90 minute blocks. Neither side has shown a tendency to dominate either period consistently.

Recent form offers no clear favourite. Niroye Zamini's last five matches brought one win, one draw, and three losses — four points from 15 available. Mes Kerman managed one win, two draws, and two losses in the same span, earning five points. Both sides have lost to Saipa and Sanat Naft recently. Both have also beaten opponents they were expected to. The form is too mixed to suggest one side is clearly superior.

A draw suits this fixture on paper. The model agrees. The history agrees. But that conclusion stops holding if either side finds an early breakthrough. A goal in the first 15 minutes changes the shape of the match entirely — and both sides have shown vulnerability there, with Niroye Zamini conceding 14% of their goals and Mes Kerman 29% in that window.

Outcome: Draw. Confidence: 43%.