Pachuca Women vs Toluca Women: match prediction on 5 October 2026

Pachuca Women are projected to edge Toluca Women 2:1 on 5 October, a conclusion built on the model's goal expectations and the visitors' tendency to concede late. The 21% draw probability and 70% chance both sides score point to goals rather than a cagey affair, and the 9% likelihood of a 2:1 result sits highest among the three most probable scorelines.

Pachuca have won just one of their last five matches but that victory came at home against Santos Laguna Women, 4:1, the only time they have kept a clean sheet in the current campaign. Their scoring pattern shows a sharp rise in the final quarter of an hour, with 31% of their 36 goals arriving after the 75th minute. Toluca concede 11% of their 36 goals in the same period, a figure lower than any other segment, yet the model still gives Pachuca 2.4 expected goals. That gap between their late output and Toluca's defensive record in the closing stages is where the home side's case begins.

Toluca sit fifth with 19 points from nine games, six wins and two losses. Their last five results read three wins and two defeats, including a 4:0 away victory over Necaxa and a 6:0 home win against Tijuana. They average 84.4 attacks per match compared to Pachuca's 58.5, and their top scorer E. Le Sommer has nine goals this season.

The head-to-head record is evenly split across seven encounters, with three wins each and one draw. Pachuca won 4:0 at home in March 2024 and 3:1 away in October 2024, while Toluca claimed 2:1 at home in July 2023 and 2:3 away in March 2024. The most recent fixture ended 1:1 at Toluca's ground, and neither side has managed a comfortable margin since. The pattern suggests matches between these teams rarely produce one-sided results, which aligns with the model's 74% probability of three or more goals across the board.

The prediction holds only if Pachuca maintain their late-scoring habit and Toluca do not tighten their defence in the final twenty minutes. A 1:1 result, the second most likely scoreline at 8%, would leave the visitors with a point and the match outcome unproven.