Follo HK beat Nerbo 25-23 on Sunday at home in the REMA 1000-ligaen, ending what had been a comfortable week for the visitors. The result shifts the balance in the middle of the table, where every point matters more than the standings suggest.
Nerbo came into the match fifth with six games played, three wins, three draws and no losses — 6 points on the board. Follo sat sixth after five matches, also on 5 points with two wins, two draws and one defeat. The gap between them was narrow, but the away side carried the momentum.
We had backed the visitors with 52 per cent confidence in our pre-match forecast. That prediction did not hold. What shifted things was Follo's ability to stay in the game when Nerbo pushed ahead, and then close out a tight finish without panic.
Follo's recent form had been mixed. They drew 30-30 with Kolstad, lost 32-33 at Bergen, and dropped 22-33 against Runnar. But they had also beaten Drammen HK 28-27 and lost narrowly to Arendal 29-33. This result suggests their recent draws were not accidents.
Nerbo's run of six games without defeat came to an end here. Their last five matches included wins over Fjellhamar and losses to Kolstad, Sandefjord and Runnar. They have been competitive everywhere, but this was the first time they failed to take something from a match this season.
The table now sees Follo move within one point of Nerbo. Both sides remain in the upper half, but the away side's perfect defensive record is broken. The difference between fifth and sixth place shrinks to a point, and the race for a higher finish just opened up.
