AEK Athens HC vs PAOK: match prediction on 28 September 2026

AEK Athens HC to win. 65% confidence.

AEK are expected to outscore PAOK 31.3 to 28.2, and the numbers sit comfortably with their recent record at home. They have beaten PAOK in three of the last four meetings, including a 27:25 victory on 27 April. The visitors are yet to play in the league this season, while the hosts already sit third with two points.

AEK's form since the start of May shows a side that can score freely but also concedes heavily, winning 34:27 away at RK Drama and 33:32 away at Olympiacos, while losing three of the other fixtures. The 153 goals scored against 162 conceded paints a picture of a team that attacks but leaves space at the back. That pattern fits what the model projects for this fixture.

PAOK come in with a stronger five-match run on paper—three wins and two losses, 151 goals for and 143 against. Their most recent outings were against Dudelange in the European Cup, which they won both times, 29:21 at home and 33:28 away.

The historical edge belongs to AEK. Across 14 meetings in recent years they have won ten, drawn twice, and lost only twice, with scorelines that have often been tight. The 28:28 draw on 9 March and the 26:25 Greek Cup win on 21 December show that PAOK can compete, but the aggregate record does not favour them.

PAOK sit tenth in the table with zero points and zero matches played. AEK are already third after one win. That gap in competitive rhythm matters more than the raw numbers from their last five games. The visitors have had time to prepare, but the league points are not there yet, and AEK have already proven they can handle pressure in front of their own crowd.

A draw would suit PAOK's approach—they could sit deep, absorb, and look for transitions. The model gives a 0% chance of a draw, but if PAOK manage to control the tempo and limit AEK's early bursts, the prediction loses its footing. A scoreline of 28:28 or 29:29 would break the conclusion.

AEK have the stronger head-to-head record, the better league position, and the model backs them to score more goals. PAOK have momentum from the European Cup, but that competition does not translate directly to the A1.