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Alingsås HK vs HK Malmö: match prediction on 16 October 2026
Alingsås HK
HK Malmö
Prediction for
Win: Alingsås HK
52%
probability
Outcome probabilities (1X2) · by our model
52%
1
48%
2
Prediction fixed and will not change after kick-off
Reasoning
Based on data as of 14 Oct, 18:05- Алингсос ХК — 2. place, 6 points after 4 games (3 wins, 1 draws, 0 losses)
- ХК Мальмё — 7. place, 4 points after 4 games (2 wins, 2 draws, 0 losses)
- Алингсос ХК, last 5 games: 3 wins, 2 losses
- ХК Мальмё, last 5 games: 2 wins, 1 draws, 2 losses
- Head-to-head: 8 games, Алингсос ХК — 5, ХК Мальмё — 3
Key factors
Form last 5 matches
Alingsås HK
WLWWL
3 wins · 2 losses
HK Malmö
LWLWW
3 wins · 2 losses
Head to head 9
5Alingsås HK
0Draw
4HK Malmö
- 17 Sep 2025Alingsås HK — HK Malmö35:40
- 18 Feb 2025HK Malmö — Alingsås HK26:29
- 22 Nov 2024Alingsås HK — HK Malmö30:32
- 20 Mar 2024Alingsås HK — HK Malmö31:25
- 3 Oct 2023HK Malmö — Alingsås HK28:25
Bookmaker market
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Prediction commentary
Based on data as of 14 Oct, 18:05# Alingsås HK vs HK Malmö Preview
Prediction: Alingsås HK win (52% confidence)
Alingsås HK take on HK Malmö at home in the Handbollsligan on 16 October 2026, and the model backs the hosts to edge a tight encounter. The model predicts an Alingsås HK victory with 52% confidence, a narrow margin that reflects the balanced nature of this fixture. The expected goals model projects 30.1 for the hosts against 30.0 for the visitors, a difference of barely a single goal that suggests this could go either way.
Alingsås HK sit second with 6 points from 4 matches, their record of 3 wins and 1 draw leaving them undefeated so far. HK Malmö occupy seventh place with 4 points from the same number of games, 2 wins and 2 draws keeping them unbeaten as well. The two-point gap between them is not vast, but it shows Alingsås have been slightly more effective in the league phase.
Recent form adds another layer. Alingsås HK have won 3 of their last 5 matches, scoring 164 goals while conceding 158. Their most recent outing saw them beat Skanela 31-26 away, and before that they won 39-37 at home against LUGI HF. HK Malmö have taken 7 points from their last 5 games with a record of 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses. They drew 38-38 with Ystads IF HF in the Swedish Cup on 11 September and have been less consistent away from home, losing 29-35 at Ystads and 29-34 at Skanela.
The head-to-head record over six meetings shows Alingsås HK with 4 wins and 2 losses. Their most recent clash came on 17 September 2025 when HK Malmö won 40-35 at Alingsås, a result that demonstrates the visitors can compete strongly on their patch. The previous meeting at Alingsås on 22 November 2024 ended 32-30 to HK Malmö, while the fixture at Malmö on 18 February 2025 saw Alingsås HK win 29-26.
The 0% probability for a draw in the model's output indicates no draw is predicted, and the slight edge to Alingsås aligns with their home advantage and superior league position. The hosts have been stronger at home, winning both their recent home games against LUGI HF.
The match kicks off at 17:00 UTC on 16 October 2026. Alingsås HK enter as favourites based on their league position, home record and the model's narrow expectation of a victory. HK Malmö have shown they can win away at Alingsås, and their unbeaten start to the season means they cannot be dismissed lightly. The 52% confidence in a hosts' win reflects how finely balanced this contest appears to be.