Bocholt vs Tournai: match prediction on 12 September 2026

Bocholt to win, confidence 85%. The gap is so wide that a different result would require something outside the normal range of this fixture.

Bocholt have won three of their last five matches, taking 9 points across five matches. Their most recent outing was a 47:33 victory over Apollon on 05.09.2026, and before that they beat Houten 37:27 at home on 08.03.2025. Tournai, meanwhile, have taken only 5 points from 154 goals scored and 128 conceded. They drew 37:37 with Eynatten-Raeren at home on 05.09.2026 and lost 31:36 to Sprimont on 07.03.2026. Their sole win in the period was a 30:24 home victory over Gent on 07.02.2026.

Tournai sit second on zero points from zero games. Bocholt have played in the BENE-League and the European Cup, while Tournai have featured in Division 1 and the BENE-League as well. There is no head-to-head record supplied between the two sides, and no team news on injuries or suspensions is available. The model gives a 0% probability for a draw, 0% for both teams scoring, and 0% for 3 or more goals — the model expects a blowout.

Bocholt's attack has been prolific. They scored 47 goals against Apollon and 37 against Houten in their last two Division 1 or BENE-League outings. Tournai's highest output in the same window was 37 goals against Eynatten-Raeren, but they also managed only 25 against Oldham and 31 against Sprimont. The projection points to a 94-goal margin.

A draw suits the visitors in theory, but Tournai have not won in four of their last five matches and have drawn twice. They conceded 31 goals in a 31:31 loss to Sprimont and 25 in a 25:0 defeat to Oldham. Bocholt, by contrast, kept a clean sheet in neither of their last five but have consistently found the net. The model's 0% probability for both teams scoring is extreme, yet it aligns with Tournai's recent struggles to impose themselves against stronger opposition. If Tournai can keep Bocholt below 80 goals, the outcome shifts — but that would require a performance far beyond what they have shown in 2026.

The 85% confidence rests on the expected-goal differential.